What do South African police crime statistics report about murders on farms by race over the past decade?
Executive summary
South African police figures and expert analysis show roughly 50–63 people killed on farms each year in recent years, representing well under 1% of national murders; police do not routinely publish a long-term, race-disaggregated time series for farm murders, though they provided a short racial breakdown for early‑2025 showing five of six victims were Black (African) in Q1 2025 [1] [2] [3]. Independent trackers such as TAU/TAU SA report similar annual totals (about 58–74 in some years and an average of ~63 in 2014–2024), but those datasets and police reporting have gaps and different emphases [4] [1] [5].
1. What the official statistics say — limited, recent, and not routinely by race
The South African Police Service (SAPS) includes farm attacks and murders in its crime statistics but stopped publishing a dedicated, continuous farm‑homicide series after 2007 and does not routinely break down farm murders by race in annual national releases, making long‑run race comparisons in official data difficult to produce [4] [5]. In an exceptional move in 2025, SAPS released a racial breakdown for the first quarter of the 2024/25 financial year: of six murders linked to farms in that quarter, five victims were Black (African) and one was white, a detail Police Minister Senzo Mchunu used to rebut claims of a targeted “white genocide” [3] [2].
2. Independent tallies and their findings — similar totals, different coverage
Farmer unions and civil‑society trackers such as the Transvaal Agricultural Union (TAU/TAU SA) and related compilations have recorded roughly 50–70 farm murders per year in recent years; one count gives averages of 58–74 murders annually for 2015–2017 and TAU SA’s own tabulation shows an average of about 63 murders per year from 2014–2024 [4] [1]. These private datasets often report the race of victims more explicitly, and they are widely cited in advocacy and media — but they are compiled with different methodologies and are not a substitute for comprehensive, official race‑disaggregated statistics [1].
3. Scale and context — farm murders are a small share of national homicides
Experts and fact‑checkers emphasize scale: farm murders amount to only a tiny fraction of total murders in South Africa. Estimates of roughly 50–63 farm murders per year compare with national murder counts in the tens of thousands — for example, nearly 27,500 murders in 2022–23 and more than 19,000 murders Jan–Sept 2024 — making farm murders far less than 1% of all murders in some recent years [6] [1]. Analysts say violent crime in South Africa is driven largely by class, location and high urban crime rates rather than a single, race‑targeted campaign [6] [7].
4. Motive and interpretation — robbery and broader crime dynamics
Multiple authorities — SAPS investigators, the Institute for Security Studies and human‑rights studies cited in reporting — conclude robbery and greed are commonly the motive behind brutal farm crimes, not an organized, racially‑targeted genocide [4] [7] [1]. The question of whether white farmers are “major” victims appears in academic and NGO work: some studies note white farmers constitute a large share of farm‑owner victims historically, but they also stress the phenomenon is complex and includes Black farm owners, workers and dwellers; framing the issue as “white genocide” is rejected by many researchers and government officials [8] [7] [9].
5. Data gaps and competing narratives — why the debate persists
The debate persists because official race data are scarce, private trackers and advocacy groups publish their own counts (sometimes with different definitions), and emotive imagery and political claims amplify selected figures. The police’s cessation of separate farm‑homicide releases after 2007 and reliance on broader homicide categories leaves room for competing interpretations; fact‑checkers and government spokespeople have repeatedly pushed back on claims that the killings constitute a race‑based genocide [4] [1] [6].
6. What is available and what is not — how to read the evidence
Available sources confirm yearly totals of roughly 50–70 farm killings in recent years and that the SAPS does not routinely publish long‑term race‑disaggregated farm‑murder data; they also record that SAPS provided a short racial breakdown for Q1 2025 showing five of six victims were Black [1] [4] [2]. Sources do not mention a comprehensive, decade‑long police series by race that would definitively answer “murders on farms by race over the past decade” (not found in current reporting).
Conclusion — the facts, plainly: farm murders are a small portion of South Africa’s very large homicide toll; independent counts and police figures point to roughly 50–63 farm murders per year in recent years; race breakdowns exist in advocacy datasets and in the limited SAPS disclosure for early 2025, but a full decade of official, race‑disaggregated farm‑murder statistics is not publicly available in the cited reporting [1] [4] [2].