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Fact check: How many people did California lose or gain between April 1 2020 and 2023?
Executive Summary
California’s population trajectory between the 2020 Census (April 1, 2020) and calendar year 2023 is contested because different official estimates and media accounts highlight opposite short-term movements: the state’s baseline 2020 Census count is 39,538,223, and state estimates record a net gain in 2023 of roughly 67,000 people, ending three years of declines. Reconciling those two facts shows that California fell from its April 2020 level during 2020–2022 and then partially rebounded in 2023, leaving the net change over the full interval dependent on which 2023 dated estimate one uses and how one aggregates annual changes [1] [2].
1. Why the headline numbers diverge — the Census baseline versus state-year estimates
The April 1, 2020 Census provides a fixed population baseline of 39,538,223, a hard count used for apportionment and many official comparisons. State estimates from the California Department of Finance use that baseline plus administrative data on births, deaths, domestic migration and international migration to produce annual updates; those updates showed multi-year declines after 2020 and a rebound of ~67,000 people in 2023 driven by rising legal immigration and fewer deaths [1] [2]. The practical effect is that a direct comparison labeled “April 1, 2020 to 2023” requires specifying which 2023 estimate (end-of-year, July 1, calendar year, or Jan 1, 2024 vintage) you mean, because the DOF methodology and timing change the arithmetic outcome. That methodological nuance explains why some outlets report a 2023 gain while other narratives emphasize cumulative pandemic-era losses [3] [4].
2. The arithmetic people quote: +67,000 in 2023, but not the whole story
Multiple contemporaneous reports cite the California Department of Finance estimate that California gained about 67,000 residents in 2023, the first annual increase since 2019 and a reversal of the 2020–2022 downward trend; coverage attributes this mainly to increased legal international immigration and lower mortality after the pandemic peak [2]. Those reports are accurate for the 2023 calendar-year change; they do not, however, claim that 2023’s gain restores the state to its April 1, 2020 population. Reporting the +67,000 figure without the multi-year context can create the headline impression that California “regained” everything lost since 2020, which the DOF’s multi-year tables and the underlying Census baseline do not necessarily support [3] [4].
3. Alternative counts and contrary narratives — who says California continued to lose people?
Some analyses emphasize continued net losses or larger cumulative declines over the 2020–2023 period, citing migrant flows out of state tied to housing costs, taxes, and business climate as drivers of overall population shrinkage in prior years. One later 2025 analysis referenced an approximate 75,000 loss in 2023 within certain frames of measurement, illustrating how different vintages and methodologies (e.g., midyear versus calendar-year accounting, or private demographic reconstructions) produce opposing-sounding claims [5]. These contrary narratives often surface in commentary focused on economic or political implications, and they selectively highlight metrics that buttress policy points about affordability and migration; comparing them to DOF’s official series shows the importance of reading the exact time window and the agency’s component accounting [5] [4].
4. How to answer the original question precisely — pick a clear measurement rule
To give a definitive numeric answer you must specify the endpoints and the estimating series. Using the Census April 1, 2020 baseline [6] [7] [8] and the California Department of Finance’s reported net gain of ~67,000 in 2023, the correct characterization is: California fell below its April 1, 2020 population during 2020–2022, then added about 67,000 people in 2023, so the net change from April 1, 2020 through the end of 2023 remained a loss when measuring cumulative 2020–2022 declines offset partially by the 2023 gain [1] [2]. If you instead compare April 1, 2020 to a specific 2023 point estimate published by the DOF (for example a Jan 1 or July 1 vintage), the numeric net change must be computed from the DOF table cited (E-6) to get the exact signed difference [4].
5. Bottom line for readers who want a single number to report
If you need a short, defensible soundbite: cite the April 1, 2020 Census count [6] [7] [8] and the DOF’s 2023 annual net gain of roughly 67,000. Then add the clarifying sentence that the 67,000 gain in 2023 reversed prior annual losses but did not fully erase the cumulative decline that occurred between April 2020 and the start of 2023 unless you use a particular DOF vintage that shows a net return—and point readers to the DOF E-6 tables for the precise vintage-to-vintage arithmetic [1] [2]. This framing presents both the official baseline and the most-cited 2023 update while signaling the methodological choice that determines the final reported net change [3] [4].