How did California's population change between 2020 and 2025 (net migration, births, deaths)?

Executive Summary — Short Answer Up Front

California’s population fell during the early pandemic years, then returned to modest growth by mid-2024: a net loss of about 412,000 people between July 2020 and July 2023, followed by a net gain of roughly 49,000 people between July 2023 and July 2024, driven by increased international migration and a reduction in domestic out-migration; births declined to record lows while deaths fell from pandemic highs, so natural increase contributed only modestly ^{[1] [2]}. Across 2020–2024 the major cumulative contributors were large net domestic out-migration earlier in the period, increased international migration by 2023–24, and a small natural increase because births dropped and deaths decreased, though some reporting frames and revisions produce differing totals ^{[3] [1] [2]}.

1. What people claimed — the central assertions you’ll see in coverage

Multiple accounts assert three consistent claims: that California lost residents to other states in the early 2020s, that international migration rebounded and helped reverse declines by 2023–24, and that birth rates fell to record lows while deaths subsided from pandemic peaks. One set of reports summarizes a cumulative net domestic migration loss of about 1.46 million from 2020–2024 alongside slower inflows and limited natural increase ^[3]. Other pieces emphasize a smaller adult-level domestic loss (over 700,000) tied primarily to housing affordability, while noting an uptick in higher-income in-migrants and a large drop in those leaving in the most recent year ^[4]. These claims are consistent in direction but differ in scale and framing depending on time windows and measure choices.

2. What the official counts and timelines show — numbers and components

California Department of Finance figures and state analyses show a 412,000 decline from July 2020 to July 2023, then a 49,000 increase from July 2023 to July 2024, producing a smaller net loss across the entire 2020–2024 window than earlier declines suggested ^{[1] [2]}. The rebound to positive growth for the July 2023–24 year is attributed chiefly to net international migration of about 134,370 in that year and a drop in net domestic outflow, while birth rates fell to a record low in 2024 and death rates declined from pandemic highs, producing a modest natural increase ^{[5] [1]}. Some media summaries translate these year-to-year counts into calendar-year or January 1, 2025 totals, reporting an overall population near 39.53 million and citing revisions that adjust earlier 2024 counts upward ^[6].

3. How components—births, deaths, international and domestic migration—stack up

Across available reports, international migration became the strongest single positive component by 2023–24, with estimates around 134,000 net international arrivals in that period, offsetting continuing but reduced domestic outflows ^[5]. Natural increase was small: births hit record lows in 2024, constraining population gains, while deaths fell from the elevated pandemic levels, so their net effect was modestly positive but far smaller than migration effects ^[1]. The dominant story remains migration-driven volatility, where shifting migration patterns (who leaves, who arrives, and why) explain most year-to-year swings rather than births or deaths alone ^{[4] [1]}.

4. Where the sources diverge — revisions, time windows and measurement choices

Discrepancies among accounts stem from different time frames (calendar year vs. July–July), unit definitions (adults vs. total population), and post-release revisions by the Department of Finance and other analysts. One analysis highlights a cumulative domestic loss of 1.46 million through 2024, while state tables emphasize the July 2020–23 412,000 drop and the subsequent 49,000 gain; both can be correct depending on the span and metrics used ^{[3] [1]}. Media pieces that focus on reasons for moves cite housing affordability and economic composition shifts, while official counts focus on births/deaths and migration flows; these different lenses produce different emphases though they rely on overlapping underlying data ^{[4] [2]}.

5. What remains uncertain or underexamined — implications and data gaps

Key uncertainties include the exact cumulative net change through 2025 (some reports extend into early 2025 with revisions), the demographic composition of recent migrants (age, income, education), and how temporary immigration trends will persist post-2024. Source updates and methodological revisions by the California Department of Finance and federal agencies can change headline totals; analyses caution that short-term rebounds driven by international migration may not erase longer-term trends tied to housing, cost of living, and demographic aging ^{[2] [3]}. Comparing sources shows consensus on direction—early loss then modest rebound—while disagreement centers on magnitude and policy implications.

Bottom line: official state data and multiple analyses agree that California’s large pandemic-era population decline reversed into modest growth by mid‑2024 thanks to international migration and reduced domestic outflow, but births fell to record lows and natural increase remained small, leaving migration as the decisive component of change ^{[1] [5]}.