What were annual CPI inflation rates under Obama, Trump, and Biden from 2009–2025?
Executive summary
Annual CPI inflation by calendar year from 2009–2025 moved from very low levels during the Obama years to a sharp spike during the early Biden term and then toward moderation into 2025; reporting rounds up aggregated totals differently (e.g., Investopedia reports a 1.46% average for Obama [1], FactCheck reports CPI rose 21.5% under Biden [2], and FactCheck previously reported a 7.8% rise under Trump for his first term [3]). Sources disagree on framing (year-by-year numbers vs. presidential-term aggregates) and on which months are used as endpoints, so direct comparisons require careful attention to definitions [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. What the sources say about Obama (2009–2016): low, steady inflation after the Great Recession
Contemporary compilations show that inflation was unusually low across most of Barack Obama’s presidency, with Investopedia calculating an average year‑over‑year inflation rate under Obama of 1.46% [1]. Academic summaries that track price-level changes across presidencies estimate that “over his two terms, prices rose 15.0%,” which is a cumulative, not annual, figure; that framing underscores the difference between calendar‑year CPI rates and multi‑year cumulative price changes [4].
2. What the sources say about Trump’s first term (2017–2020): modest inflation, then pandemic drop
FactCheck’s compilation for Trump’s “final numbers” reports that the CPI rose 7.8% over his first term, a multi‑year aggregate rather than a list of annual rates [3]. Other analysts note that inflation during Trump’s 2017–2019 years was generally near or below 2% and that 2020 saw a decline [5]. Academic trackers reiterate that inflation during the 2017–2020 period was comparatively low and stable compared with later years [4].
3. What the sources say about Biden (2021–2024/early 2025): a surge and debate over its size and causes
FactCheck’s “Biden’s Final Numbers” reports that CPI rose 21.5% under Biden, an aggregate figure that captures the large year‑over‑year increases concentrated in 2021–2022 [2]. Multiple sources emphasize 2022 as the defining year of higher inflation, and analysts debate the drivers—supply‑chain disruptions, pandemic dynamics, fiscal stimulus and global shocks—with political actors and policy analysts assigning different weights to each factor [2] [6]. Academic comparisons show Biden among presidents with above‑average inflation in recent decades [7].
4. 2025 and the start of Trump’s second term: moderation, tariffs and measurement caveats
Data through 2025 indicate inflation moderated toward the Fed’s area near 2–3% but remained above the 2% PCE target in many months; the BLS reported a 0.3% monthly CPI increase for September 2025 [8]. TradingEconomics and other trackers put year‑to‑year inflation around 3.0% in September 2025 [9] [8]. Commentators caution that new tariff policies and their pass‑through to consumer prices could push inflation higher, and short‑run comparisons depend on which months are used as start/end points [5] [10].
5. Why one number (like “CPI rose X% under President Y”) can be misleading
Sources use different conventions: some report average annual inflation across a presidency (Investopedia’s 1.46% for Obama), others report cumulative CPI growth across the period (FactCheck’s 21.5% for Biden, FactCheck’s 7.8% for Trump’s first term), and researchers sometimes compare price‑level changes over fixed month spans tied to inaugurations [1] [2] [3] [4]. That creates apples‑to‑oranges figures unless you confirm whether the figure is an annual average, a year‑over‑year change for a specific month, or cumulative growth over the full term [1] [2] [3].
6. Competing interpretations and hidden agendas in the sources
FactCheck frames presidential “final numbers” to judge administrations, which highlights political accountability but compresses complex monthly CPI dynamics into a single political narrative [2] [3]. Investopedia and academic sites emphasize averages or cumulative price levels, which can understate year‑to‑year volatility [1] [4]. Policy advocates cited in media (e.g., assessments of the American Rescue Plan’s inflationary impact) put different weight on fiscal stimulus versus global causes; those assessments can reflect ideological perspectives and selective attribution [6].
7. What’s missing or not covered in the provided reporting
Available sources do not provide a single consistent table of calendar‑year CPI inflation for each year 2009–2025 in this packet; they instead offer averages, cumulative changes, or scattered monthly/year summaries. If you want a year‑by‑year list (2009, 2010, …, 2025) derived from BLS monthly CPI data, that precise table is not in the current set of sources and would require direct BLS series extraction (not found in current reporting).
Sources cited: Investopedia (presidential averages) [1]; FactCheck (Biden and Trump aggregates) [2] [3]; academic/policy analyses and presidential comparisons [4] [7]; BLS release and 2025 CPI reporting and commentary [8] [9] [10]; commentary on 2025 tariffs and early Trump term [5] [11]; debate on Biden’s role and estimates [6].