Are grocery prices higher now than during the Biden administration?
Executive summary
Yes — on net, grocery prices are higher now than during the core of the Biden administration: food inflation jumped sharply in 2021–2024 and remained elevated through 2025, so shoppers today are still paying more than they did in 2020–21, even though the pace of increases has slowed and varies widely by product and place [1] [2] [3].
1. The big-picture numbers: food prices rose a lot during and after the pandemic
Between 2020 and 2024 the all‑food Consumer Price Index climbed about 23.6 percent, a larger increase than for all items over the same period, meaning households faced materially higher grocery bills through the end of the Biden term and into the following year [1]. Government data for 2025 show food prices continued to rise — 3.1 percent for the year ending December 2025, with “food at home” up about 2.4 percent — signaling that the higher baseline established during 2021–24 did not evaporate when administrations changed [2] [3].
2. Inflation’s tempo changed but the level stayed high
The most dramatic spikes in grocery inflation came in 2021 (with peak food inflation hitting double digits year‑over‑year in some months), then slowed by mid‑ to late‑2022; however, the cumulative effect left prices substantially above pre‑pandemic levels and 2025 still recorded annual increases, not declines [4] [3] [2]. Forecasts and agency outlooks for 2026 anticipate further modest rises for overall food or particular categories (ERS projects all‑food up ~3.0% and food‑at‑home up roughly 1.7% with wide prediction intervals), underscoring that prices remain elevated and likely to stay that way near term [5].
3. What shoppers feel: variation by product, retailer and state
Consumers’ experiences diverge: dairy, beef, pork and coffee have been at or near record highs and some urban and rural markets show stark differences, with state‑level grocery cost changes varying dramatically — Pennsylvania saw much larger increases than Colorado in one analysis, and ConsumerAffairs and Consumer Reports document significant geographic and store‑level disparities [6] [7]. Grocery‑basket studies and city‑by‑city retailer comparisons show that which store and which items a household buys materially affects whether they feel “relief” or continued pain [6] [8].
4. Politics, messaging and the data gap
Political leaders have pinned competing narratives to these numbers: claims that grocery prices are “rapidly going down” have been called unsupported by the BLS and news analysts who point to 2025 gains, and media outlets have noted that some presidential statements lack citation or mischaracterize short‑term swings versus cumulative changes [9] [2]. Reporting and forecasts differ slightly — for example ERS, AARP summaries and other outlets offer varying near‑term percent expectations for 2026 — but they converge on the key fact that prices remain higher than in the early Biden years and than pre‑pandemic levels [5] [10].
5. The practical takeaway for households
For most Americans grocery bills are higher now than during much of the Biden administration because of the cumulative 2021–24 surge and continued modest increases in 2025; yet whether an individual family feels better or worse off depends on what they buy, where they shop, and local cost shifts — and official forecasts suggest modest additional increases for 2026 in some items while others may ease [1] [2] [5].