How did core CPI (excluding food and energy) change each year under Biden?
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Executive summary
Core CPI — the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy — spiked early in the Biden presidency and then trended downward as headline inflation cooled. Official BLS series show a multi-year period of elevated core inflation through 2022–2023 and slower annual increases by 2024–2025; critics and partisan trackers cite cumulative or average figures (for example, House Republicans’ 17.1% cumulative number and 4.1% core figure) while fact-check and BLS reports emphasize the peak 2022 surge and later disinflation [1] [2] [3].
1. A sharp peak, then a slow unwind — the BLS baseline
When examining core CPI year-over-year changes during the Biden years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the primary source for CPI data) documents the large run-up in inflation that culminated in mid‑2022 and a gradual slowdown thereafter. The official CPI reporting highlights that the worst spike in the period was the 12 months ending June 2022 — a 9.1% increase in overall CPI — and that inflation cooled slowly as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates [2] [3]. The precise month‑to‑month and year‑to‑year core CPI numbers are published by the BLS in its monthly CPI releases and charts [3] [4].
2. How partisan tallies differ from BLS monthly accounting
Political actors have packaged BLS data differently to make broader claims. The House Budget Committee’s release asserted a 17.1% cumulative rise in CPI since January 2021 and cited a 4.1% “core CPI” growth figure without specifying the exact start/end months or whether the number is a simple cumulative percent or an average annual rate [1]. Those political tallies use combinations of BLS readings but compress multi‑year variation into single headline numbers; the BLS itself provides monthly and 12‑month change series that let analysts compute annual changes year‑by‑year rather than as a single cumulative summary [3] [4].
3. Independent analysts and think tanks show varied framings
Economic research shops and think tanks have highlighted different aspects: some emphasize the painful early surge (for example noting the 9.1% year‑over‑year peak in mid‑2022) and the subsequent decline in year‑over‑year rates; others focus on monthly annualized rates or on how core CPI behaved relative to headline CPI as indicators of “stickier” underlying inflation [2] [5]. For instance, Texas A&M’s review of CPI through early 2025 interprets monthly core moves as signaling continued elevated core inflation into 2024–2025 even as headline inflation moderated [5].
4. What the headline numbers omit — timing, base effects and measures
Simple year‑by‑year comparisons can mislead unless you account for base effects, sample definitions and the choice of intervals. The BLS cautions users about seasonal adjustment choices and sampling error in CPI estimates; monthly seasonally adjusted series are revised and the agency publishes 12‑month percent‑change charts and tables so readers can examine the specific months they care about rather than relying on aggregated political claims [6] [4]. Available sources do not provide a single table in this packet that lists each calendar-year annual change in core CPI for every year of the Biden presidency; the BLS monthly releases and charts are the source to compute those precise year‑by‑year rates [3] [4].
5. Competing narratives: responsibility vs. monetary policy limits
Political claims often ascribe inflation outcomes to presidential policy; neutral reporting and Fed‑focused analyses stress that monetary policy and pandemic supply shocks were central drivers. FactCheck noted that prices rose rapidly in 2021–2022 and that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes were the principal mechanism that later cooled inflation [2]. Conversely, partisan releases such as the House Budget Committee press release attribute cumulative price increases to administration fiscal choices, citing headline cumulative percentages and a core CPI tally [1]. Both framings draw on BLS data but emphasize different causal stories [2] [1].
6. How to get the exact year‑by‑year core CPI changes
For a precise year‑by‑year list of core CPI annual percent changes under the Biden administration, consult the BLS CPI tables and the BLS chart of 12‑month percent changes by category; those official series let you extract the December‑to‑December or calendar‑year comparisons you want [3] [4]. The BLS monthly news releases and the detailed tables linked from the CPI homepage are the authoritative source for producing the exact annualized core CPI changes for each year [3] [6].
Limitations and transparency: this briefing uses only the provided sources. The packet includes BLS releases and partisan/policy commentary but does not include a ready‑made table of core CPI annual changes for every calendar year of the Biden term; you must extract those figures directly from BLS monthly series and charts [3] [4].