How did monthly inflation trend during each year of the Biden presidency?
Executive summary
Monthly U.S. inflation (CPI year‑over‑year) began the Biden presidency at about 1.4% in January 2021, climbed almost uninterrupted to a 9.1% peak in June 2022, then trended downward through 2023 — reaching about 3.0% in June 2023 — and stayed lower though above the Fed’s 2% target into 2024–2025 (figures and timing summarized in BLS/analysis reporting) [1] [2] [3].
1. The early climb: pandemic rebound and rising monthly CPI
When Biden took office in January 2021 the CPI was low — roughly 1.4% year‑over‑year — and then inflation accelerated through 2021 into 2022. Analyses show inflation rose from around 1.7% in early 2021 to double‑digit pressures and then into the summer 2022 peak, reflecting pandemic reopenings, supply disruptions and fiscal stimulus in that period [2] [1].
2. The peak: June 2022 at roughly 9.1%
Multiple fact‑checks and retrospective analyses mark June 2022 as the high‑water mark of the Biden era CPI, with a 9.1% year‑over‑year increase — the highest in about 40 years — reached after roughly 16–17 months of the administration [1] [3] [2].
3. The unwind: a long monthly descent beginning mid‑2022
After June 2022 the monthly year‑over‑year CPI began a sustained decline for roughly a year and more. By June 2023 the 12‑month CPI increase had fallen to about 3.0%, a significant retracement from the prior peak and a point the administration highlighted as evidence inflation was coming down [1] [4].
4. Variations within the trend: core vs headline and sector drivers
Headline CPI moves were amplified by volatile food and energy costs — for much of 2022 energy shocks (including the fallout from Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine) pushed headline readings higher — while “core” measures excluding food and energy also rose and then eased, meaning the broad gains were not only in volatile categories [5] [2] [3].
5. Politics and competing narratives about timing and responsibility
Political actors used the monthly trend in opposing ways. Republican congressional claims framed cumulative price rises since January 2021 as a 17–20% increase and blamed administration fiscal policy [6] [7]. The Biden White House and allied analyses emphasized the post‑peak decline and supply‑side healing that brought CPI back toward lower readings [8]. Independent fact‑checkers note factual disputes over statements such as whether inflation was “9% when he took office,” which is incorrect — the 9% peak arrived in mid‑2022 [1] [3].
6. What the data sources show — monthly pattern, not uniform increases
Primary CPI reporting from the BLS (and analyses that chart month‑by‑month CPI) show inflation rose most months early in the term up to mid‑2022, then fell for a prolonged stretch into 2023 and stayed lower into 2024; summaries and charts are available from the BLS and multiple outlets cited here [9] [2] [1]. Claims that inflation rose every single month of the presidency are technically imprecise; several analysts and fact‑checkers state the general pattern was strong upward momentum into June 2022, then a clear downward trend [10] [1].
7. Magnitudes and lived impact: cumulative changes and wages
By some public metrics (CPI index levels) prices were roughly 17–20% higher in late 2023 versus January 2021, a point used by critics to describe a “cost” to families; researchers also note that real wages fell in many months because price gains outpaced nominal wage growth for much of the period [11] [2] [6].
8. Limits of the reporting and what’s not shown
Available reporting here focuses on CPI year‑over‑year monthly rates and summary charts; these sources do not provide a full month‑by‑month table in this packet, nor do they substitute for a direct BLS time series download. For precise monthly values across every month of the presidency, the BLS CPI series and FRED CPI series should be consulted directly (available sources do not mention a complete month‑by‑month table in this set) [9] [12].
9. Bottom line for readers
The clear empirical arc captured in government releases and contemporaneous reporting: inflation was low at the January 2021 start, climbed through 2021 into a 9.1% peak in June 2022, then declined substantially through 2023 to multi‑percent levels nearer 3% — a pattern used by both critics and defenders to argue different causal stories about policy, global shocks and Federal Reserve action [1] [2] [4].