How did core inflation (excluding food and energy) trend across the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations?
Executive summary
Core inflation — the common measure that excludes food and energy — was low during most of the Obama years, stayed relatively subdued through the Trump term until the COVID shock, then surged under Biden before moderating but remaining above pre‑pandemic norms: core CPI/PCE rose sharply in 2021–22 (peaking around double‑digit annual headline but core near mid‑3s to high‑2s), and by late 2024–2025 core PCE/CPI had eased to roughly 2.8–3.1% (examples: core PCE ~2.8% in Sept. 2025; core CPI ~3.0–3.1% Sept. 2025) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Obama: long run of low core inflation, recovery-era calm
During Barack Obama’s presidency the underlying picture was muted inflation: average year‑over‑year inflation remained low, with Investopedia reporting an average annual CPI inflation of about 1.46% across his terms — a period characterized by slow price growth after the Great Recession [5]. Reporting and retrospectives emphasize that inflation was largely subdued in the 2010s until the pandemic era [1].
2. Trump (first term): core inflation generally subdued pre‑pandemic
Through Donald Trump’s first term prior to the 2020 pandemic, core inflation stayed near the Federal Reserve’s long‑run target range and sometimes below it; many analyses say inflation was “relatively low and stable” during 2017–early 2020 [6]. That stability ended not because of domestic policy alone but because of the global shock from COVID‑19 that disrupted supply chains and demand patterns [6].
3. Biden: pandemic rebound, big 2021–22 rise, then gradual easing
Core inflation climbed sharply after 2020 as the economy reopened and stimulus amplified demand while supply strains persisted; commentators and fact‑checks highlight an inflation surge during Biden’s early years, with headline CPI peaking in 2022 and core gauges running well above historical norms [7] [6]. By late 2024 and into 2025 the 12‑month core PCE and core CPI readings had fallen materially from their peaks but remained elevated relative to the pre‑pandemic period — for example, core PCE was reported around 2.8% (Sept. 2025) and core CPI roughly 3.0–3.1% (Sept. 2025) in multiple government and press releases [2] [3] [4] [8].
4. Comparing administrations: context, timing and measurement matter
Simple comparisons across presidencies obscure timing and which index is used. Sources stress different baselines and measures: the Fed prefers core PCE while the public watches core CPI; Investopedia and FactCheck use averages across years, while news outlets report monthly/annual snapshots — yielding different impressions [5] [7] [3]. PolitiFact and others note that whether inflation “fell” under one president or another depends on the month and metric chosen [9]. The surge in inflation was concentrated after 2020, so attributing year‑by‑year averages to a single administration ignores the pandemic’s timing [6].
5. What’s driving the post‑2020 persistence in core inflation?
Federal Reserve and regional Fed research point to services—particularly shelter and non‑housing core services—and lingering price pressures as central drivers keeping core inflation above 2% since early 2021 [10] [2]. Analysts also flag tariffs and other policy choices as potential upward pressures later on, with private‑sector research expecting core CPI pressure into late 2025 from factors like owners’ equivalent rent and tariff pass‑through [11] [12].
6. Political framing and competing narratives
Both parties use inflation numbers selectively. Republicans and some media highlight the 2021–22 surge as a critique of Biden policies; Democrats counter that the post‑pandemic spike reflected global shocks and that inflation has come down from peak levels [7] [13] [14]. Reporting from AP and Fortune records direct political claims tying recent tariff policy to higher prices under the current administration, while other outlets note moderation in inflation that complicates simple partisan claims [13] [14].
7. Limitations and what the sources do not say
Available sources document trends in core CPI and core PCE through 2025 and discuss drivers [3] [2] [4]. They do not provide a single, consistently computed, administration‑by‑administration series of average core inflation that would allow a simple “Obama vs. Trump vs. Biden” numeric ranking across identical measures and time spans; several outlets compute averages using different methods [5] [7]. For that precise cross‑administration statistical table, available sources do not mention a uniform dataset computed the same way for all three presidencies.
Bottom line: core inflation was subdued during most of the Obama years and through Trump’s pre‑pandemic term, rose sharply during the pandemic recovery under Biden, then eased by 2024–25 to roughly the high‑2s/low‑3s percent range depending on the measure — a nuanced picture that shifts with the chosen index, timeframe and baseline [5] [6] [2] [3] [4].