Does deporting immigrants cause housing or apartment prices to go down?
Executive summary
Research cited by multiple outlets finds that mass deportations are more likely to raise — not lower — home prices by shrinking construction labor, slowing new building, and increasing repair and development costs; studies linking stricter enforcement to reduced homebuilding and higher prices are highlighted by university researchers and policy analysts (see Troup Howard study and Urban Institute analysis) [1] [2]. Experts and industry groups warn deportations would also increase foreclosures and mortgage defaults among households with undocumented residents, further destabilizing local housing markets [3].
1. Deportations shrink the construction workforce — and supply follows
Academic work using staggered policy rollouts finds stricter enforcement reduced construction labor and new homebuilding, which in turn boosted prices for both new and existing homes [1]. University of Utah research and related summaries report that when programs like Secure Communities increased deportations, residential construction slowed and home prices rose — because the supply response to lost workers is large relative to the modest increase in vacant units created by departures [4] [5].
2. The mechanism: fewer builders, higher costs, and slower repairs
Sources explain the causal chain plainly: undocumented immigrants make up a significant share of the construction workforce (estimates cited around 23–30 percent), so removing them raises labor shortages, pushes up wages and materials costs, delays projects, and reduces the flow of new units into tight markets — all upward pressure on prices [2] [6]. Stateline reporting adds that labor shortages can also raise repair and insurance costs after disasters, which can feed into higher housing prices in vulnerable states [7].
3. The “free housing” argument is empirically weak
Political claims that deporting immigrants would free up housing and lower prices overlook scale and market dynamics. Analysts say the modest number of units vacated would not offset the loss of labor that keeps supply growing; the predominant driver of affordability problems is an existing shortage of homes and restrictive supply-side factors such as zoning, not short-term occupancy by newcomers [5] [1] [2].
4. Foreclosures, mortgage risk, and local spillovers
Beyond construction, advocates and researchers warn mass deportation could trigger foreclosures and mortgage defaults among the roughly 1.2 million mortgages held by households with undocumented residents, eroding wealth and destabilizing local markets — an effect that can depress values in some neighborhoods and cause market dislocations elsewhere [3]. Past research finds deportations contributed to foreclosures in Latino communities by removing income earners [3].
5. Short-term vs. long-term effects — complexity and variation
Reporting and papers stress geographic heterogeneity. States with higher shares of foreign-born construction workers (e.g., Florida, Nevada, Arizona) would be especially vulnerable to construction slowdowns and price rises; other markets might see different short-term rental impacts [2] [7]. Some brokers note localized drops in very low-cost rental markets could ripple outward, but the dominant evidence links deportation-driven labor loss to higher, not lower, housing costs overall [7].
6. Consensus among experts and policy analysts
Multiple outlets — university research summaries, the Urban Institute, Bankrate, Investopedia, Shelterforce, and others — converge on the view that mass deportation would likely worsen housing affordability by shrinking supply and raising costs [4] [2] [6] [8] [9]. Those sources cite the same empirical study designs (Secure Communities rollout) and workforce shares as the basis for this conclusion [1] [4].
7. Limitations and open questions in available reporting
Available sources rely heavily on one line of empirical research and projections; they do not settle every counterfactual. Not found in current reporting: comprehensive, nationwide natural experiments showing a uniform, permanent price decline following deportations. Some local brokers and commentators hypothesize varied rental effects in low-income neighborhoods, but large-scale quantitative evidence in the materials supplied points toward supply-driven price increases rather than decreases [7] [5].
8. Bottom line for policymakers and the public
Policymakers aiming to lower housing costs should prioritize expanding supply and addressing regulatory constraints rather than expecting deportations to free up affordability; existing research and expert commentary warn the likely outcome of mass deportations is higher construction costs, slower housing production, and greater financial risk for households and lenders [1] [2] [3].