What economic studies link deportation policies to housing prices?

1. The new empirical paper tying enforcement to higher home prices

A working paper by economists including Troup Howard analyzes county-level exposure to the federal Secure Communities program and concludes that stepped-up immigration enforcement reduced the local construction labor supply, slowed residential construction, and ultimately put upward pressure on home prices and existing housing stock values ^{[1] [2]}. The authors report that domestic workers only partially replace deported construction workers, making the supply-side shock to homebuilding a dominant mechanism for higher prices ^[3].

2. Media and institute coverage that amplifies the finding

University and news outlets summarized the Howard–Wang–Zhang work as evidence that mass deportations would worsen the housing shortage by cutting construction output, with outlets from the University of Utah to Newsweek and NPR explaining the paper’s supply-side channel and limited domestic substitution for labor ^{[2] [3] [6]}. The Marriner S. Eccles Institute and Newsweek both emphasize that reduced construction starts translate into higher prices over time, even if any immediate demand-side effects briefly put downward pressure on prices ^{[2] [3]}.

3. Prior empirical literature showing immigration raises local prices and rents

Separate, earlier research in the Journal of Housing Economics (cited by Investopedia) found that areas with immigration equal to 1% of the population experienced roughly a 0.8% increase in home prices and rents, indicating that immigrant-driven demand can itself raise local housing costs in some contexts ^[4]. This line of work frames deportations as potentially reducing demand but also acknowledges that demand effects are only one piece of the housing-price equation ^[4].

4. Policy analyses and think-tank perspectives: supply shocks matter

Think tanks and policy analysts such as the Urban Institute and UnidosUS have interpreted a range of studies to argue that mass removals would reduce the construction labor force—because that industry is highly dependent on immigrant workers—and thereby exacerbate the U.S. housing crisis through lower housing starts and tighter supply ^{[7] [8]}. Industry voices and housing outlets similarly warn that labor shortages can increase builder costs and slow deliveries, feeding price pressure even amid some contested demand effects ^{[9] [3]}.

5. Contrasting views and political framing

Not every source reads the evidence the same way: some political actors and administration statements assert that deportations have already coincided with price declines in certain metros, a claim presented without the same methodological detail as peer-reviewed studies ^[10]. Independent fact-checkers caution that while immigration affects demand, recent national price swings are more strongly linked to mortgage-rate movements and long-term underbuilding than to immigrant flows alone, a reminder that multiple forces determine housing prices ^[5].

6. What the collective evidence supports and where uncertainty remains

Together, the empirical paper on enforcement (Howard et al.) and prior studies on immigration-driven demand form a coherent narrative: deportations can push prices up via supply-side shocks to construction and by altering local demand, but the magnitude and timing depend on how much domestic labor can substitute, regional housing shortages, and macro factors like interest rates and land-use constraints ^{[1] [3] [4] [5]}. Reporting and policy briefs (Urban Institute, UnidosUS, industry press) all converge on the practical point that removing construction workers risks worsening affordability, even as political statements and some short-term data slices offer competing interpretations ^{[7] [8] [10]}.