Do illegal immgrant make wages lower and if we deport them all , would the wages go higher
Executive summary
Unauthorized immigrants exert complex, sector-specific pressure on wages: research finds small downward effects on wages for competing low‑skilled workers in some settings but complementary gains for other workers and the economy overall, and sweeping mass deportation would not be a reliable way to raise native wages—models and empirical studies show deportations shrink GDP, cut employment, and can even lower wages for many U.S. workers [1] [2] [3].
1. What the question really asks: substitution, scale and time horizons
The core is whether undocumented workers mechanically depress wages for natives and whether removing them would raise pay—an economic answer depends on how substitutable undocumented and native workers are for employers, how large the labor supply shock would be, and whether the change is temporary or permanent; models emphasize that high substitutability produces larger local wage gains for competing low‑skill workers, while lower substitutability and broad economic linkages mute or reverse those gains [4] [5].
2. What empirical studies show about small wage effects and local variation
A body of empirical literature finds modest negative effects on wages for low‑skilled native workers who are close substitutes for immigrants, but the magnitude is often small and concentrated in specific occupations and geographies—classic findings and reviews conclude the adverse wage impact on competing low‑skill workers exists but is limited in size relative to the whole economy [6] [7].
3. Why mass deportation changes the arithmetic: GDP, employment and spillovers
Multiple policy simulations and historical episodes indicate that mass removal of undocumented workers reduces output, raises costs, and can eliminate jobs held by U.S.‑born workers—analyses by think tanks and academic models project sizable GDP losses, employment declines, and even periods of higher inflation after large-scale deportations [8] [9] [10] [3].
4. When wages might rise — and for whom
Trade‑off models show that if undocumented workers are nearly perfect substitutes and they are removed permanently, wages for the remaining low‑skilled authorized workers can rise modestly; CGE and search-model papers find that under some parameterizations unskilled wages increase while overall output falls, but those gains are neither universal nor guaranteed and depend on whether employers can substitute with authorized labor or capitalize via automation [4] [5].
5. When wages fall — empirical evidence from past enforcement waves
Empirical evidence from enforcement rollouts like Secure Communities and other episodes finds that deportation or enforcement often led to worse labor‑market outcomes for U.S.‑born workers, including declines in employment and wages in affected counties—studies cited by Brookings, EPI and others report employment losses for natives and warn of negative wage and employment spillovers [2] [1] [8].
6. Broader economic channels and political incentives
Removing millions of workers creates downstream effects—labor shortages in agriculture, construction and services push up costs, reduce production, and depress demand, which can counteract any narrow wage gains and harm native employment; advocates for deportation emphasize wage gains for Americans, while many econometric studies and policy groups argue the political agenda for mass removal overlooks wider macroeconomic damage and fiscal costs [11] [12] [8].
7. Synthesis and verdict
Unauthorized immigration can modestly lower wages for directly competing low‑skilled workers in some places, but deporting everyone would not reliably raise native wages across the board; instead, large‑scale removals are projected to shrink GDP, reduce employment, and produce mixed or even adverse wage outcomes for many U.S. workers—policy choices therefore matter more than simple removal: legalization or targeted reforms often show better prospects for raising wages and tax revenues without the catastrophic economic side effects of mass deportation [2] [3] [7].