How much did grocery prices change year-over-year from 2023 to 2025 nationally?
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Executive summary
Grocery (food-at-home) prices rose 5.0% in 2023, slowed to about 1.2% in 2024, and were forecast and observed to rise again in 2025 in the low-to-mid single digits — ERS reports a 3.3% forecast for food-at-home in 2025 while broader food inflation measures show ~2–3% year-over-year gains in early–mid 2025 (ERS, BLS/TREND sources) [1] [2] [3].
1. What the headline numbers say
The USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) and BLS-derived series show a clear arc: grocery prices jumped sharply in 2022 and remained elevated into 2023 (food-at-home was up 5.0% in 2023), then the pace of grocery inflation decelerated in 2024 (average annual food-at-home prices were 1.2% higher in 2024 than in 2023) and moved back upward in 2025 with ERS forecasting a 3.3% increase in food-at-home for 2025 [1] [2] [4].
2. How different measures and agencies define “grocery”
Not all series are identical. ERS distinguishes food-at-home (grocery store purchases) from food-away-from-home (restaurants). ERS explicitly reports food-at-home averages and forecasts (the 1.2% 2024 year-over-year increase and the 3.3% 2025 forecast) while broader “food” or “food inflation” measures reported by BLS and private trackers include both at-home and away-from-home components and can produce slightly different year-over-year rates [2] [1] [3].
3. 2023 to 2024: a major slowing in grocery inflation
Multiple ERS analyses summarize the large deceleration: after elevated increases in 2022, food price increases slowed to 5.8% in 2023 for all food and then to about 2.3% in 2024 — and specifically food-at-home inflation averaged 1.2% in 2024 versus 5.0% in 2023 for groceries [4] [2] [1].
4. 2024 to 2025: renewed upward pressure
ERS forecasts and BLS-tracked indicators for 2025 show grocery inflation rebounding above 2024’s pace. ERS’s February 2025 chart noted a 3.3% forecast for food-at-home in 2025, a rate higher than 2024’s 1.2% but lower than 2023’s 5.0% [1]. Private and market trackers (TradingEconomics summarizing BLS releases) show overall food inflation around 2.8–3.2% in various months of 2025, with food-at-home generally near roughly 2–3% year-over-year at points in early-to-mid 2025 [3].
5. Category-level volatility mattered — eggs and meat drove headlines
Aggregate grocery averages hide sharp swings in specific items. Reporting and analysts highlight eggs and some meats as major contributors to retail grocery swings in 2024–25; egg prices in particular spiked at times (one specialist report noted egg prices up ~49.3% year-over-year in a May 2025 snapshot) and drove monthly volatility in the meats/poultry/fish/eggs index [5] [3].
6. Why the pattern happened: supply, demand and services
ERS and related commentary point to several drivers: farm-level commodity price movements, processor and retail costs, and diverging dynamics between grocery retailing and restaurants. ERS explicitly links retail grocery price trends to upstream farm prices and downstream retail/processing costs, and it notes food-away-from-home prices grew faster than food-at-home in recent years, which affected overall food inflation patterns [2] [4].
7. What the official and private numbers don’t tell you
Available sources do not mention precise nationwide monthly year‑over‑year grocery percent changes for every month between 2023 and 2025 in a single consolidated table. They do provide annual percent changes and forecasts or monthly snapshots for 2025 from ERS and BLS-derived trackers [2] [4] [1] [3]. For a strict month-by-month national grocery CPI series you must consult the BLS CPI tables or ERS downloadable datasets referenced in those releases [6] [7].
8. Competing perspectives and limits of the data
ERS frames 2025 as a moderate rebound for food-at-home (3.3% forecast) relative to 2024 weakness; market trackers (TradingEconomics/BLS summaries) show month-to-month variation with some months in 2025 exhibiting ~3% food inflation and others nearer to 2% — different sampling, timing and the split between at-home vs away-from-home account for the variations [1] [3]. Consumer-facing trackers (retail point-of-sale datasets) can produce different short-term impressions than CPI averages because they measure different baskets and timing [8].
9. Bottom line for readers
Between 2023 and 2025 the national story is: a sharp grocery-price increase in 2023 (around 5.0% for food-at-home), a marked slowdown in 2024 (about 1.2% year-over-year for groceries), and a renewed but more moderate rise in 2025 (ERS forecast ~3.3% for food-at-home and BLS/market snapshots showing roughly 2–3% food inflation in parts of 2025) — exact month-to-month figures require consulting BLS CPI releases or ERS data tables cited by these sources [1] [2] [3] [4].