How did inflation under Biden compare to the last three presidents by annual rate?
Executive summary
Across the available reporting, Biden-period annual CPI inflation averaged roughly the mid-to-high single digits in its worst year and about 4.9% when averaged over his full term, while inflation peaked near 9.1% year‑over‑year and fell to roughly 2.9% by his final month (January 2025) [1] [2] [3]. Comparisons to prior presidents vary by source and methodology, but Investopedia reports an average year‑over‑year inflation rate under Biden of 4.95% — notably higher than many recent presidents’ averages — while contemporaneous outlets and official commentary emphasize the peak and subsequent decline during his term [1] [3].
1. What the headline numbers say — Biden’s annual and average inflation
Investopedia’s compiled measure lists the average year‑over‑year inflation rate under Joe Biden at 4.95% for his presidency, and cites a peak annual CPI reading of about 9.1% during the high‑inflation period, with inflation down to roughly 2.9% by January 2025 [1] [3]. Texas A&M’s analysis and other contemporaneous reporting note that by January 2025 year‑over‑year CPI was about 3.0% and that the four‑year period saw prices rise substantially overall [2] [3].
2. How compared with the “last three presidents” — apples, oranges, and averages
Direct, apples‑to‑apples annual‑rate comparisons depend on how you average and which price series you use; Investopedia’s presidential compilation is one commonly cited yardstick and places Biden’s average (4.95%) above recent predecessors’ averages [1]. Available sources do not provide a single unified table comparing Biden’s annual rates side‑by‑side with the three prior presidents in this dataset, but multiple outlets emphasize that Biden’s average and peak were notably higher than the low average inflation observed in the 2010s and early 2020s [1] [3]. Sources do not mention a precise line‑by‑line annual rate series for all four presidents in one place for this query.
3. Why the gap widened — policy, pandemic legacies and energy shocks
Reporters and analysts attribute the sharp rise early in Biden’s term to pandemic recovery dynamics, fiscal stimulus, supply‑chain disruptions and the 2022 energy price shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which together pushed CPI to multi‑decade highs [1]. The Biden administration’s stimulus and strong post‑pandemic demand are repeatedly cited in summaries of the period’s inflation drivers [1]. Reuters and other outlets emphasize those global and cyclical forces as large contributors to the peak [4].
4. The tail matters — decline before the handoff to the next administration
Several sources underline that while inflation peaked under Biden, it fell sharply before his term ended — to roughly 2.9% by December 2024/January 2025 — a decline used by some commentators to argue policy progress [2] [3]. Other pieces, including fact‑checking and later coverage of 2025, stress that inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% goal and that different measures (headline vs. core) can tell different stories [5] [2].
5. Competing narratives and political framing
The White House and Republican critics present opposing interpretations: Democratic and some neutral analysts point to falling inflation and improving real incomes late in the term, while Republican statements and some committee releases frame the four‑year total price rise (often measured as ~19–21% across different indices) as evidence of an “inflation tax” under Biden [6] [7]. These claims hinge on choice of index (CPI vs. PCE), start and end dates, and whether one emphasizes the peak or the late‑term decline [7] [2].
6. Limitations, methodology caveats and what’s missing
Available sources here use different measures (CPI vs PCE), different averaging methods, and different start/end points; Investopedia gives a clear average for Biden (4.95%), but the dataset needed to produce a neat, single‑line annual comparison for the last three presidents alongside Biden is not present in these files [1]. Official BLS or BEA tables for exact year‑by‑year CPI/PCE under each president are not included in the provided results; available sources do not mention that consolidated table in this packet [1] [2].
7. Bottom line for readers
Biden presided over an inflation episode that included a sharp peak (around 9.1%), an average near 4.95% across his term per Investopedia, and a notable decline to about 2.9–3.0% by his final month — figures higher than the averages of several recent predecessors and therefore distinct in modern comparison [1] [3] [2]. The exact rank versus the three prior presidents depends on which measure and averaging method you choose; the sources here show broad agreement on the peak and subsequent fall but differ in political framing and emphasis [1] [6] [7].