What is the inflation rate now under trump
Executive summary
As of the most recent official monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) release cited in the available sources, U.S. headline CPI inflation was 3.0% on a 12‑month basis for the period ending September 2025 (reported October 24, 2025) [1] [2]. The Fed’s preferred measure, core PCE, showed a 12‑month rate of about 2.8% for September 2025 in delayed reporting referenced by news coverage [3].
1. What the headline numbers say: a post‑summer 3.0% CPI
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ September 2025 CPI release reported a monthly CPI increase and, in the data summarized by multiple outlets, the 12‑month headline CPI was 3.0% for the period ending September 2025 [1] [2]. TradingEconomics and the BLS material included in those compilations describe that annual CPI rose to 3.0% in September 2025 after 2.9% in August [2]. The official BLS news release documents the monthly CPI movements underpinning that year‑over‑year reading [1].
2. The Fed’s metric: core PCE near 2.8% and why it matters
Federal Reserve officials primarily monitor the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rather than CPI; CNBC’s coverage of the delayed September PCE noted the core PCE annual rate was about 2.8% [3]. That lower core PCE reading is the metric Fed policymakers cite when debating the path of interest rates and potential cuts, and it helps explain why some Fed officials felt room to consider easing [3].
3. Different measures, different stories — CPI vs. PCE vs. nowcasts
CPI and PCE use different baskets and weights; they routinely differ by a few tenths of a point. The Cleveland Fed produces daily “nowcasts” to estimate current inflation ahead of monthly releases — useful because official releases can lag and, in 2025, releases were disrupted by staffing and schedule issues [4] [5]. The Cleveland Fed nowcasts both CPI and PCE and explains its model uses high‑frequency inputs like daily oil prices and weekly gasoline data to give a timely sense of where inflation stands [4].
4. Trends behind the aggregate: shelter, energy, and services
Detailed breakdowns show persistent gains in shelter and varying contributions from energy and food. Treasury analysis cited rent inflation of 3.7% over the year through September 2025 and noted shelter remained a major driver even as headline inflation moderated to 3.0% [6]. Visual Capitalist and other BLS‑based visualizations show food and home services as key sources of price gains while some goods categories (like apparel or certain tech goods) declined or slowed [7].
5. Timing and data caveats: delayed releases and revisions matter
Several sources note the timing of releases and disruptions: the October CPI report was canceled amid a government shutdown and some BLS staff were recalled to ensure data publication, creating gaps and delays in official month‑to‑month coverage [5] [2]. The PCE report referenced by CNBC was described as “slightly stale” and delayed, which matters because policymakers and markets react to the most current data available [3]. Users should therefore treat single‑month snapshots as provisional until normal release schedules resume [4] [8].
6. Political framing: “under Trump” is a shorthand, not a causal explanation
Asking “What is the inflation rate now under Trump” bundles measurement with attribution. The sources provide point‑in‑time inflation measures for 2025 (CPI ~3.0%, core PCE ~2.8%) but do not, in the supplied documents, analyze how much of those readings are caused by specific presidential policies or external factors; available sources do not mention an attribution breakdown tying the September 2025 rates solely to presidential actions [1] [3] [6]. Analysts and partisan actors often emphasize different drivers — monetary policy, supply chains, energy prices, housing supply — and those competing narratives are present in broader coverage though not quantified in the provided excerpts [3] [7].
7. What to watch next: releases, nowcasts, and Fed commentary
The next official CPI update referenced in the sources was scheduled for December 18, 2025 (for November data), and the Cleveland Fed’s nowcasts provide daily indications between releases [5] [4]. Markets will focus on monthly CPI/PCE movements, shelter inflation, and Fed minutes for guidance on rate decisions; CNBC notes factions on the FOMC differ on whether further cuts or holding a restrictive stance are appropriate given recent readings [3].
Limitations: this analysis uses only the documents you supplied. It reports official numbers through September 2025 and related reporting; more recent months or alternative datasets are not available in the provided sources [5] [1] [3].