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How did inflation in Trump’s final year compare across states, industries, and demographic groups?
Executive summary
Available sources show U.S. headline inflation moderated to roughly 2.9–3.0% by 2024–2025 after the 2022 peak, with calendar‑year 2024 averaging 2.9% and the 12‑months ending September 2025 at about 3.0% [1] [2]. The material in the search results covers national and category-level CPI patterns (goods vs. services, food/energy, shelter) but does not provide a systematic, source‑by‑source breakdown of inflation by state, by every industry, or by detailed demographic groups — those disaggregations are not found in the current reporting [3] [4].
1. National trend: from panic to moderation
After mid‑2022’s high inflationary readings, multiple data compilations and forecasters record a clear disinflation trend: the average annual inflation in calendar 2024 was about 2.9% and analysts report continued moderation into 2025 when the 12‑month rate was reported near 3.0% for the 12 months ending September 2025 [1] [2]. The Congressional Budget Office slide deck and private forecasters link that slowdown to falling goods inflation, sticky but easing services inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening [3] [5].
2. State variation: acknowledged but not detailed in these sources
Several items note that inflation “can vary widely by city” or region and that states have experienced differing inflation paths over recent years, but the provided results do not include a state‑by‑state, apples‑to‑apples table in this dataset [6] [7]. In short: reporting recognizes geographic variation but the current set of sources does not give a complete state‑level comparison for Trump’s final year (not found in current reporting).
3. Industry and category differences: goods versus services and housing
Available analyses emphasize that inflation behaved very differently across categories: goods inflation spiked early in the pandemic then returned toward trend while services—especially housing/shelter and some services like medical care or restaurant prices—remained more persistent [3] [5]. FocusEconomics and the CBO material highlight food at home, shelter, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, and household furnishings as notable movers in recent monthly readings [5] [3].
4. Specific price swings called out by reporters
Reporters singled out some dramatic subcomponents: for example, a large drop in egg prices and a sharp monthly fall in “food at home” contributed to short‑term moves, while rises in motor vehicle insurance and medical care partially offset those declines [5]. These micro moves show why headline inflation can fall while particular costs remain problematic for certain households [5].
5. Demographics: limited direct evidence in this dataset
The search results reference analyses that compare inflation’s effects by income or household type in a general sense (for example, differences between high‑ and low‑income households), but the provided material does not present a detailed demographic breakdown (age, race, family structure) for “Trump’s final year” specifically [8] [4]. Therefore, a rigorous claim about which demographic groups experienced higher or lower inflation in that year cannot be supported from the current reporting (not found in current reporting).
6. Data sources and measurement caveats journalists should flag
Key measures cited (CPI‑U, PCE) differ in coverage and weighting; the BLS CPI is the principal public series referenced across results, and methodological changes over time can influence comparisons [9] [10]. The CBO slide deck and other reviewers note that core vs. headline indexes (excluding food and energy) tell different stories about underlying inflation pressures [3] [5].
7. Competing perspectives and hidden agendas to watch
Private forecasters (FocusEconomics) and data aggregators emphasize convergence toward the Fed’s target, framing the trend as successful disinflation [5]. Consumer‑facing sites and financial commentary (Statista, Motley Fool) stress category‑level pain points and distributional impacts, which can underscore political narratives that inflation is still "high for certain households" [4] [7]. Readers should note that private advisory outlets may emphasize market implications, while government publications focus on methodological disclosure [3] [9].
8. What’s missing and where to look next
To answer the original question fully — precise comparisons of inflation across every U.S. state, across detailed industries, and across demographic groups in Trump’s final year — one needs state‑level CPI microdata, BLS regional/urban‑area releases, the BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey, and PCE breakdowns; those specific datasets are not present in the provided search results (not found in current reporting; p1_s4). For rigorous follow‑up, consult the BLS CPI regional releases and the BLS/Census demographic expenditure microdata alongside PCE tables [9] [3].
Summary recommendation: use the BLS CPI and PCE tables for category and regional microdata and the Consumer Expenditure Survey for demographic incidence to build the cross‑cutting comparison the question requires — those specific disaggregated data are not included in the current search results [9] [3].