How have tariffs and trade policy under Trump and Biden affected U.S. import patterns and consumer prices?
Executive summary
Tariff policies enacted under President Trump and largely preserved or adjusted under President Biden meaningfully changed U.S. import patterns and raised consumer prices: Trump’s Section 232 and Section 301 measures and later broad tariffs raised effective tariff rates and prompted import surges and circumvention, while Biden retained many China tariffs and added targeted duties, producing persistent price effects and higher customs revenue [1] [2] [3]. Economists and policy groups concur that most of the tariff burden falls on U.S. buyers, shrinking consumer choice and real incomes even as some domestic sectors see protection or investment incentives [4] [5] [6].
1. The policy landscape: continuity, expansion, and legal mechanisms
The Trump administration used Section 232, Section 301 and later emergency IEEPA authority to impose large tariffs on steel, aluminum, many Chinese goods and a widening list of imports, producing hundreds of billions in covered trade and new customs duties, and the Biden administration kept most of those Section 301 tariffs in place while selectively negotiating exemptions and adding targeted measures of its own [1] [2] [7]. Analysts note the Biden years generated more tariff revenue in dollar terms than Trump’s first term because many tariffs remained and some were expanded, and policymakers used tariff-rate quotas and diplomatic deals (for example on EU steel) to blunt certain effects while retaining leverage [1] [7].
2. How import patterns changed: front-loading, avoidance and shifting suppliers
Importers reacted predictably: there was a documented surge in imports just before new tariffs took effect as firms accelerated purchases to avoid higher duties, and subsequent months show patterns of tariff avoidance—sourcing shifts, transshipment through third countries, and modest import substitution—so overall trade volumes and partner shares adjusted but did not simply collapse [3] [5] [8]. Studies find importers avoided a measurable share of new tariff costs by accelerating purchases and altering sourcing—Wharton’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates about 13.1% of new tariffs were avoided through behavioral responses—while other work documents exporters routing goods through neighboring countries to escape targeted duties [3] [5].
3. Direct effects on consumer prices and household burdens
Multiple independent analyses conclude consumers pay most of the tariff tax: research from the Kiel Institute and others shows around 96% of tariff incidence was passed through to U.S. buyers in many cases, and tax-policy trackers estimate per-household burdens in the thousands under expanded 2025 tariff stacks, with sizeable short-run price spikes in apparel, leather goods and electronics and persistent long-run upward pressure after substitution [4] [6] [9]. The Tax Foundation and academic commentators argue tariffs act like a consumption tax that raises retail prices and reduces real incomes and choice, and models from CBO and JP Morgan project modest GDP losses and downward pressure on real disposable income from broad tariff regimes [1] [7] [10].
4. Macro effects, revenues and sector winners/losers
Tariffs have been a substantial revenue source—customs duties rose by tens to hundreds of billions across administrations—and modeling suggests they compress overall output modestly while benefiting some protected producers; Tax Foundation and Yale/Budget Lab estimates show sizable tariff revenue but also projected small declines in GDP, capital stock and employment in tariff-exposed sectors [1] [6]. Financial institutions and research shops warn the net effect includes higher consumer prices, supply-chain disruption and uncertain gains for manufacturing broadly, with some industries (steel, select domestic manufacturing) gaining protection while downstream users and consumers lose [11] [10].
5. Limits, counterarguments and the politics of measurement
There is disagreement about magnitude and duration: some macro scenarios assume the Fed “looks through” tariffs and allows prices to rise, concentrating the burden on consumers, while alternative assumptions (partial absorption by foreign exporters, supply-chain reconfiguration) can moderate measured price effects—yet empirical studies cited here tend to show limited exporter absorption and substantial pass-through to U.S. buyers [4] [5] [12]. Reporting and modeling vary by assumptions about substitution, behavioral timing (front-loading), and whether emergency IEEPA tariffs remain legally intact; those uncertainties mean precise household cost estimates differ across the Tax Foundation, Yale Budget Lab, TPC and academic studies even as they converge on the basic conclusion: tariffs raised import prices and shifted trade patterns in ways that mostly burdened U.S. consumers [1] [6] [9].