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USDA methodology for calculating average Thanksgiving dinner cost
Executive summary
The USDA is not the primary originator of the commonly cited “average Thanksgiving dinner” figure; that number comes from the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual supermarket survey, which reports a 2025 classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 at $55.18 (about $5.52 per person) based on volunteer price checks across all 50 states and Puerto Rico [1]. Reporting and academic pieces cite USDA Agricultural Marketing Service and other USDA data for specific inputs like turkey wholesale/feature prices, but available sources do not say the USDA produces the Farm Bureau’s dinner-cost estimate itself [2] [3].
1. Who actually produces the “average Thanksgiving dinner” number? — The Farm Bureau’s long-running survey
The figure widely quoted in 2025 news coverage — $55.18 for a classic Thanksgiving meal serving 10 — traces to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, not a USDA cost-of-meal program; Farm Bureau volunteer shoppers collected prices in stores and online during the first week of November and the organization published the national average [1] [2]. Reuters and other outlets use the Farm Bureau release as the primary source when reporting the year-to-year change [4].
2. What role does USDA data play in these reports? — Input data, not the headline estimate
While the Farm Bureau survey is the headline figure, its commentary and many stories lean on USDA datasets for context on specific items. The Farm Bureau explicitly cites USDA Agricultural Marketing Service data on turkey feature prices when explaining retail turkey trends [2]. Academic analysis from Purdue’s Center for Food Demand Analysis uses USDA weekly wholesale turkey reports and USDA ERS price spreads to model expected retail turkey prices, showing USDA data underpins some technical price estimates even if it doesn’t issue the Farm Bureau’s aggregated meal cost [3].
3. How do journalists and analysts combine sources — methodology blends volunteer checks and government series
News outlets describe the Farm Bureau’s method as volunteer price checks across the U.S. (in-person and online) during an early-November window; reporters then pair that with USDA numbers and other analyses (Wells Fargo, Purdue CFDAS) to explain component movements — for example, why turkey retail features fell even as wholesale pressures existed [1] [2] [3]. This mix is why stories reference both the Farm Bureau estimate and USDA statistics without claiming the USDA calculated the $55.18 total [4].
4. What items and menu definition drive the figure? — A fixed “classic” basket that has evolved
The Farm Bureau maintains a consistent “classic” menu that it has used since the 1980s to allow year-to-year comparisons; in 2025 the organization also notes an expanded menu option (adding items such as boneless ham and frozen green beans) that raises the total to $77.09 when included [2]. Journalists emphasize that differences across other estimates (Wells Fargo, Empower, retailer bundles) often come from different baskets or brand mixes — e.g., Wells Fargo’s brand-name vs. private-label comparisons and retailers’ promotional baskets with fewer items [5] [6] [7].
5. Why do different sources give different totals? — Basket composition, brands, timing, and promotions
Comparisons vary because each methodology picks a different set of items (classic vs. expanded vs. retailer bundles), uses different brands (name-brand vs. private-label), and captures prices at different times or with promotional items (Walmart and other retailers ran $4–$7 per-person bundles that substituted fewer or lower-cost items) [6] [8]. Academic forecasting (Purdue) uses wholesale-to-retail modeling and can yield higher per-pound turkey forecasts than the Farm Bureau’s retail-feature prices capture [3].
6. Limitations, potential agendas, and how to interpret the numbers
The Farm Bureau’s survey is useful for trend comparisons because of its long history, but it is a volunteer-collected snapshot rather than a statistically representative household expenditure series; outlets note the Farm Bureau uses feature prices and grocery promotions that can understate what typical shoppers pay outside promotional windows [2] [4]. Retailers and political actors sometimes highlight low promotional baskets to support narratives about inflation relief; AP fact-checkers caution that such retailer bundles can be misleading when compared to prior baskets of different composition [8].
7. Practical takeaway — how to read headlines about “cost of Thanksgiving”
When you see a headline quoting an “average” Thanksgiving cost, check who published it: the Farm Bureau’s $55.18 is a long-standing, menu-specific survey result [1], USDA data are typically used to explain component movements (especially turkey) rather than to produce the aggregate, and other analyses (Wells Fargo, retailers, academic centers) will report higher or lower totals depending on basket, brand mix, and timing [6] [3] [5]. Available sources do not say USDA authors the Farm Bureau number; instead, USDA reports and academic models supplement journalistic explanations of why particular items rose or fell [2] [3].