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Is food prices cheaper now versus under Biden last year?
Executive summary
Food prices overall are higher now than a year ago: official measures show “all food” inflation rose about 2.3–2.5% in 2024 and continued to climb in 2025, with forecasts and monthly CPI readings pointing to further increases this year [1] [2] [3]. USDA projections and Bureau of Labor Statistics-based reporting show grocery (food‑at‑home) inflation slowed in 2024 but picked up again in 2025, and some categories—especially beef, eggs and some beverages—have risen much faster than the headline [4] [5] [6].
1. What the headline statistics say: modest year‑over‑year increases
Government and widely cited summary sources report that food prices increased modestly in 2024 and then continued to rise into 2025: the USDA’s Food Price Outlook used through late 2024 put 2024 “all food” increases around 2.3% while BLS‑based summaries cite roughly 2.5% food inflation for 2024, and monthly CPI data for 2025 show food prices continuing to rise year‑over‑year [1] [2] [3].
2. Groceries vs. restaurants: two different stories
The data split food into “food‑at‑home” (groceries) and “food‑away‑from‑home” (restaurants). USDA/ERS reported food‑at‑home rose only ~1.2% in 2024—well below historical pace—while food‑away‑from‑home rose faster (about 4.1% in 2024) [4] [1]. By early 2025 the USDA/ERS and BLS measures show grocery inflation accelerating again (forecasts of 3.3%–3.4% for food‑at‑home in 2025), while restaurant prices are still a separate upward pressure [5] [7].
3. Forecasts and expectations: 2025 looks tougher than 2024
Multiple USDA ERS products and independent coverage sketch a pattern: 2024’s large post‑pandemic spikes eased, but ERS forecasts for 2025 call for food prices to grow faster than in 2024—USDA cited projections for 2025 of roughly 3.0–3.4% overall and about 3.3% for food‑at‑home in some updates—meaning shoppers should expect higher grocery bills in 2025 versus 2024 [4] [5] [7].
4. Not all items move together—some items drove headline pain
Visual breakdowns and USDA notes show specific categories far outpaced the average: beef and veal prices jumped substantially (double‑digit year‑over‑year increases noted in 2025), and eggs and some beverages have seen steep short‑term volatility, so households that buy those items felt much larger price increases than the headline CPI suggests [4] [6].
5. Consumer perceptions vs. official measures: a persistent gap
Surveys and reporting find consumers often perceive food inflation as larger than CPI measures show: a consumer survey cited in academic/industry summaries found respondents reported higher perceived food inflation in 2024 than the official CPI numbers, even while official indices showed cooling from 2022 peaks [8]. That gap helps explain why many shoppers feel prices are “worse” even when headline inflation has slowed.
6. Geographic and store variation: local realities matter
Real‑time grocery‑price datasets and consumer reporting show substantial state and store‑level variation; analyses using Datasembly and retailer reports found year‑over‑year grocery increases differing across regions (e.g., Northeast vs. Mountain states) and some items much more expensive in particular local markets [9]. That means whether “food is cheaper now” depends on what you buy and where.
7. What this means for the original question—“cheaper now versus under Biden last year?”
Available sources do not address presidential attribution directly; they show that, in pure price terms, food overall is not cheaper now than a year ago—official CPI and USDA measures indicate higher prices year‑over‑year and forecasts expect further increases in 2025 versus 2024 [1] [5] [3]. However, the experience is uneven: grocery inflation dipped in 2024 relative to earlier years but picked up in 2025, and specific staples (beef, eggs) rose faster than average [4] [6].
8. Competing narratives and what to watch next
Political discussions often emphasize single causes (tariffs, supply shocks, retailer margins); reporting and forecasts point to mixed drivers—supply disruptions, category‑specific shocks, and shifting demand—and warn 2025 may reaccelerate food costs in some categories (p1_s7; [10] is outside the current timeframe but later reporting likewise highlights tariffs). To follow the trend look for monthly BLS CPI releases and USDA ERS Food Price Outlook updates, which report the category‑level changes that matter most to household budgets [5] [4].
Limitations: these conclusions rely on the provided USDA, BLS‑based and secondary reporting; available sources do not mention direct causal links to specific political decisions in the question framing, and none of the cited pieces attribute year‑over‑year price changes solely to presidential policy [4] [1].