How have Argentina's GDP growth and inflation trends changed since the bailout?

1. Recovery headline: growth forecasts cluster above pre‑bailout expectations

After the emergency financing and policy changes, independent forecasters and multilateral institutions expect a strong bounce: the OECD projects 5.2% growth in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, BBVA Research projects ~5.5% for 2025, and the IMF/related trackers report growth projections in the high‑single digits to mid‑single digits range ^{[1] [2] [3]}. Official quarterly data also shows activity returning—Trading Economics reports a 6.30% year‑on‑year expansion in Q2‑2025 even as quarter‑to‑quarter series recorded a slight contraction in Q2 (–0.10% q/q), underscoring uneven but positive momentum ^{[4] [9]}.

2. Inflation: from runaway to decelerating, but still high

Inflation fell rapidly from the extreme highs of 2023–24. INDEC and independent outlets recorded steep declines in year‑on‑year rates—April 2025 annual inflation of 47.3% was described as the lowest since May‑2021, and monthly rates hit five‑year lows in mid‑2025 ^{[6] [5]}. Research houses and central‑bank surveys continued to forecast further disinflation through 2025 with many scenarios centring around 25–35% annual inflation by year‑end, though some polling and Reuters surveys show stickiness and short‑term volatility ^{[7] [10] [8]}.

3. What the “bailout” appears to have done — liquidity and confidence effects

Reporting and analysis of the U.S./international support indicate the financing aimed to shore up dollar reserves, stabilise the peso and calm markets long enough for policy adjustments to take hold; commentators say the packages provided breathing room that coincided with fiscal consolidation and tighter monetary frameworks, which contributed to falling inflation and recoveries in market sentiment ^{[11] [12] [13]}. Some outlets credit the policy mix and the financing for reducing country risk premia and allowing private investment to resume in 2025 ^{[12] [1]}.

4. Competing explanations and political framing

Observers disagree about motives and sustainability. Some analysts and U.S. commentators frame the U.S. support as geopolitical—aimed at curbing Chinese influence and backing a friendly administration—rather than a pure economic rescue ^{[11] [14] [15]}. Critics in Congress and some media call the move a taxpayer risk and a political favour, while Treasury officials deny losses and emphasise market stability goals ^{[16] [17] [18]}. The debate matters because political motives can affect the terms, conditionality and public support for continued assistance ^{[19] [20]}.

5. Hidden costs and social trade‑offs: fiscal tightening and real‑world pain

Multiple sources note the rebound has come with sharp fiscal austerity and social costs; Argentina recorded primary surpluses in 2024 after deep cuts, which helped confidence but increased hardship for many households, and social indicators remain contested across datasets ^{[12] [13] [21]}. BBVA and others caution that while headline growth is strong, sectoral heterogeneity and real wage recovery will determine whether growth reduces poverty or simply restores asset prices ^{[2] [13]}.

6. Key uncertainties that will determine whether trends stick

Available reporting highlights several risks: ^[22] exchange‑rate volatility that could feed a new inflation wave despite short‑term calm ^{[23] [24]}; ^[25] political developments—elections or shifts in policy—that could reverse reforms and investor sentiment ^{[18] [20]}; and ^[26] whether fiscal discipline can be maintained without undermining demand or social stability ^{[12] [13]}. Agencies explicitly warn that sustained growth depends on continued reform credibility and external funding conditions ^{[1] [12]}.

Limitations: sources provided do not include post‑October 2025 macro time‑series detail beyond cited forecasts; available sources do not mention longer‑term distributional impacts with final data beyond mid‑2025 (not found in current reporting).