By how many dollars and what percent did California's GDP change after the decline in Chinese imports?

1. What the data show about California’s GDP level and recent trajectory

California’s economy is very large — multiple outlets put nominal state GDP in the roughly $4.1–$4.2 trillion range in 2024–2025, with BEA-based reporting and press coverage citing figures like $4.10 trillion for 2024 and $4.215 trillion in Q2 2025 ^{[2] [5] [8] [9]}. Quarter-to-quarter growth has been uneven: some sources note contraction or near-zero growth in early 2025 (e.g., business output falling at a 0.2% annual rate at the start of 2025) while other commentary points to strong quarterly gains later in 2025 ^{[9] [10] [11]}.

2. How much did imports from China fall — the trade side of the story

Reporting shows a marked pullback in imports into California and the U.S. from China around 2022–2023: statewide imports fell from $508.8 billion in 2022 to $449.48 billion in 2023, and national reporting emphasizes lower imports from China as a factor in narrowing some trade gaps ^[1]. Multiple state-level estimates place California’s imports from China in the ballpark of $121–$140 billion in recent years and note China accounts for a large share of California’s manufacturing imports ^{[4] [7] [6]}. Those figures establish the scale of exposure but do not by themselves yield a GDP impact number ^{[4] [7]}.

3. What sources say about exposure of California GDP to Chinese imports

Analysts quantify exposure in two different ways: dollar volumes of imports and share of GDP. For example, one assessment notes California imported about $122.7 billion from China in 2024 and that those imports equaled roughly 12% of state GDP (a metric used to describe vulnerability to tariffs or supply shocks) ^[7]. The Public Policy Institute of California highlights that California’s total merchandise trade was about $675 billion in 2024 — “close to 16% of state GDP” — and that manufactured goods (much of which comes from China) dominate imports ^[6]. These exposure measures show potential channels for GDP effects but are not causal estimates of GDP decline ^{[7] [6]}.

4. Why you won’t find a simple dollar-and-percent “GDP change” number in these reports

The sources separate trade flows and GDP aggregates and offer risk assessments and scenarios rather than a single empirically observed multiplier that converts an X-dollar drop in imports into a Y-dollar drop in GDP for California. For instance, articles and briefs discuss tariffs, falling imports, and sectoral impacts (tech, manufacturing, logistics) and offer forecasts and scenario-based risk, but they do not publish a direct one-to-one computation of GDP lost from the reduction in Chinese imports ^{[1] [6] [10]}. Therefore, the precise dollar and percent change in California GDP “after the decline in Chinese imports” is not spelled out in the materials provided (not found in current reporting).

5. Ways economists would estimate the effect (what the available sources imply)

Based on the sources’ pieces: start with the documented decline in import dollars (e.g., statewide imports down ~ $59.3 billion from 2022 to 2023 according to one tally), note the share of state GDP that trade represents (total merchandise trade ≈ 16% of GDP), and then model sectoral linkages (manufacturing inputs, retail inventories, price effects) to translate trade shocks into GDP changes — a multi-step exercise not performed explicitly in the sources ^{[1] [6] [4]}. Some commentators and trade-risk rankings suggest exposures equivalent to “nearly 12% of state GDP” for imports from China in one framing, which is a starting metric for scenario analysis but not a measured GDP loss ^[7].

6. Competing perspectives and caveats in the reporting

Optimistic views emphasize resilience: forecasts cited by consulting groups and the California Economic Forecast show robust GDP growth in quarters of 2025 driven by tech, AI, and construction (GDP up 3.3% in Q2 2025 in one forecast), suggesting that reduced Chinese imports can be offset by domestic demand or other export markets ^{[10] [11]}. Pessimistic scenarios, flagged by institutions like UCLA Anderson, warn tariffs and supply-chain shocks could depress growth and raise inflation — but those are projections and scenario warnings, not measured post-shock GDP tallies ^{[12] [11]}. Both strands are present in the materials and underscore that final impact estimates depend on behavioral responses, substitution to other suppliers, and policy choices ^{[10] [12]}.

7. Bottom line for your original question

Sources do not provide a direct, sourced dollar figure or percentage that states “California GDP changed by $X or Y% as a result of the decline in Chinese imports.” Available reporting gives the scale of imports from China (roughly $121–$123 billion in some recent estimates), shows statewide imports and trade represent a material share of GDP (total merchandise trade ≈ 16% of GDP), and documents trade declines and economic forecasts — but the explicit GDP-after-import-decline calculation is not in the provided sources ^{[4] [6] [1] [7]}.