How did core inflation (ex-food and energy) trend under Trump compared with Biden by year?
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Executive summary
Core inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) was roughly 3.2% in December 2024 — described as “Biden’s last full month” — and was reported around 3.0% in September 2025, a modest decline under President Trump according to multiple fact-checks and media accounts [1] [2] [3]. Administration statements claim lower averages — the White House says core inflation has tracked near 2.1% or that overall inflation averaged 2.7% under Trump — but those figures conflict with independent reporting showing core CPI near 3% in 2025 [4] [5] [3].
1. What the headline numbers say: a modest easing in core CPI
Fact-checkers and local outlets report that core CPI fell modestly from about 3.2% in Biden’s last full month to roughly 3.0% by September 2025 — a small cooling, not a collapse of inflation — and they frame that as “eased under Trump” but only modestly [1] [2] [3]. Roll Call and FactCheck.org cite a 3.0% year‑over‑year rise in core CPI for the 12 months ending in September 2025 and note core CPI rose 3% from September 2024 [6] [3].
2. Competing claims from the White House versus independent reporters
The White House has repeatedly touted larger gains: one statement says core inflation “has tracked at just 2.1%” since Trump took office; another claims inflation “dropped to an average of just 2.7%” in his second term [4] [5] [7]. Independent coverage and fact‑checking find higher readings (around 3%), so the administration’s lower figures diverge from those reported by FactCheck.org, PolitiFact and news outlets [3] [1] [2].
3. Why the numbers differ: definitions, time windows and political framing
Sources illustrate that differences arise from which index (core CPI vs. core PCE), which months are compared, and whether averages or point‑in‑time year‑over‑year rates are used. For example, some analyses cite annualized core PCE or short‑period annualizations that can be lower or higher than the headline 12‑month core CPI figures cited by fact‑checkers [8] [3]. The White House emphasizes a narrative of “taming inflation,” while independent outlets highlight that core CPI remained near 3% in 2025 [4] [3].
4. What economists and commentators say about drivers and risks
Coverage attributes Biden‑era inflation spikes to pandemic disruptions, stimulus and energy shocks; reporters and analysts warn that Trump policies — especially tariffs — could push core prices higher again, even if the short‑run trend shows modest easing [9] [10] [11]. SmartAsset and other analyses forecast that tariffs and other policy shifts could raise CPI growth back toward the 3% range or higher if sustained [10].
5. Real wages and political stakes: different metrics tell different stories
Fact‑checking notes that wages largely failed to keep up with inflation for much of Biden’s term and that under Trump some reporting suggests wages have outpaced inflation — a politically potent claim — but independent coverage cautions that these gains can be fragile if tariffs or commodity shocks reassert upward pressure [1] [11]. The Atlantic and AP pieces emphasize that voters remain sensitive to affordability even where headline inflation rates move modestly [12] [13].
6. How to read official claims going forward
Official White House claims of sustained low core inflation (2.1% or a 2.7% average) should be weighed against contemporaneous independent data on core CPI and core PCE; the latter remained nearer 3% in much of 2025 per fact checks and reporting [4] [3] [8]. Watch what index is cited (CPI vs. PCE), the exact months in the comparison, and whether the number is an annual average or a point‑to‑point year‑over‑year change [3] [8].
Limitations: available sources do not provide a complete year‑by‑year table of core CPI under each administration. The reporting above is based on the cited fact checks, White House statements and analyses in the provided sources [1] [5] [4] [3] [8].