Fact check: What is the economic impact of illegal immigration on the US economy in 2025?

1. Summary of the results

Based on the analyses provided, illegal immigration has a complex but predominantly positive economic impact on the US economy in 2025. The data reveals several key findings:

Economic Contributions:

• Undocumented immigrants paid $89.8 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2023 and held $299 billion in spending power ^[1]
• Approximately 11 million undocumented individuals are working, paying taxes, and starting businesses, filling essential jobs in agriculture, construction, and hospitality sectors ^[2]
• US Customs and Border Protection collected over $80 billion in revenue from tariffs, taxes, and fees, facilitating lawful trade critical to economic prosperity ^[3]

Impact of Immigration Restrictions:

• A decline in unauthorized immigration is expected to lower GDP growth by 0.75 to 1 percentage point in 2025 ^[4]
• Mass deportation policies would significantly harm the economy: a 4-year deportation policy would reduce GDP by 1.0%, while a 10-year policy would reduce GDP by 3.3% by 2034 ^[5]
• Both deportation scenarios would lead to increased primary deficits and decreased tax revenue ^[5]

Labor Market Effects:

• High-skilled workers would be harmed by deportation policies, while authorized low-skilled workers may see wage increases ^[5]
• Deportation would deal a "Great Recession-like blow" to the US economy ^[2]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The analyses reveal several important perspectives often missing from immigration debates:

Border Security Developments:

• There has been a dramatic 93% decrease in illegal crossings along the southwest border in May 2025 compared to the previous year ^[3], suggesting current enforcement measures are having significant effects

Policy Reform Proposals:

• The American Progress organization advocates for comprehensive immigration reform including strengthening border security, fixing the asylum system, expanding legal immigration, and creating an earned path to citizenship ^[6]
• Providing a path to legalization would generate sizable economic benefits, including increased consumer spending and tax revenue ^[2]

Congressional Action:

• The US Senate has approved unprecedented funding for immigration detention and enforcement through a budget reconciliation bill, potentially leading to mass deportations ^[7]
• This enforcement-heavy approach ignores investments in asylum processing, legal representation, and community-based alternatives to detention ^[7]

Beneficiaries of Different Narratives:

• Immigration advocacy organizations like the American Immigration Council benefit from emphasizing positive economic contributions
• Enforcement agencies and detention contractors would benefit financially from increased deportation funding
• Authorized low-skilled workers may benefit economically from reduced competition through deportations

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original question itself is relatively neutral, asking for factual information about economic impact. However, the framing could potentially lead to biased interpretations:

Terminology Bias:

• The use of "illegal immigration" rather than "undocumented immigration"** reflects a particular framing that may influence perception of the issue

Missing Nuance:

• The question doesn't distinguish between different types of economic impacts (fiscal contributions vs. labor market effects vs. GDP growth)
• It doesn't acknowledge that economic impacts vary significantly depending on policy responses to immigration

Temporal Limitations:

• Focusing solely on 2025 misses longer-term economic trends and policy effects that extend beyond a single year ^[5]

Policy Context Omission:

• The question doesn't account for recent dramatic changes in border crossings (93% decrease) or new enforcement funding that significantly alter the economic landscape ^{[7] [3]}

The analyses suggest that framing immigration purely in terms of "illegal" status obscures the complex economic realities where undocumented immigrants are simultaneously taxpayers, consumers, and essential workers contributing billions to the economy.