How have egg prices changed since Donald Trump was in office?

1. The Big Picture: From 2017 Levels to 2025 Peaks — A Volatile Climb

Egg prices at retail averaged well below the 2024–2025 highs during Trump’s presidency; annual averages from 2017–2021 were generally under $2 per dozen nominally, whereas 2024–2025 saw averages above $3 and peaks above $6 per dozen in March 2025. This represents a substantial increase since the Trump era driven primarily by supply shocks rather than a smooth inflation trend, with sources documenting nominal annual averages for 2017–2021 and sharp increases starting in 2022 tied to disease outbreaks and supply constraints ^{[4] [1]}. Federal data show the September 2025 U.S. city-average price at $3.488 per dozen, down from 2025 peaks but still above many pre-2022 averages ^[3].

2. Why Prices Spiked: Avian Flu and Production Losses Drove Supply Shortages

The dominant factual explanation for the post-2021 price surge is widespread avian influenza outbreaks that led to the culling of millions of laying hens, reducing supply and pushing wholesale and retail prices sharply upward. USDA and investigative reporting quantify tens of millions of birds culled and link those losses to record retail prices in early 2025, and analysts tie major price jumps to these biologically driven supply shocks rather than single policy levers ^{[1] [5]}. Sources also note ongoing risk and variability as outbreaks wax and wane, meaning supply-side instability continued to influence prices through 2025.

3. Short-Term Relief and the Difference Between Monthly and Annual Changes

Recent data document large monthly swings: a single-month decline of 12.7% reported as the largest since 1984 was recorded in May 2025, and September 2025 prices fell from prior months, reflecting both easing disease pressures and lower demand or increased imports. Such monthly drops can be dramatic while leaving year-over-year levels elevated; for example, a major monthly fall did not erase the fact that prices remained nearly 50% higher than a year earlier in one report, highlighting the importance of distinguishing short-term volatility from multi-year change ^{[2] [1]}.

4. Policy, Litigation and Market Forces: Multiple Narratives on Responsibility

Political and policy narratives differ: the Trump campaign and allies have argued that state regulations like California’s Proposition 2 and 12 raised costs, while critics and some policy analysts attribute price increases to administration actions or federal mismanagement of the bird-flu response. Independent reporting and data emphasize supply shocks and market dynamics as central causes, while legal actions — including a 2025 federal lawsuit challenging California’s egg rules — reflect political efforts to assign blame or reshape market conditions, indicating competing agendas in public explanations ^{[6] [5]}.

5. What Measurements Matter: Retail vs. Wholesale, CPI vs. Spot Indexes

Accurate comparison requires matching measures and timeframes: annual average retail prices, CPI subcomponents, USDA wholesale indices, and spot-market daily indices each tell different parts of the story. Wholesale egg prices began falling ahead of retail in 2025, but consumer prices often lag; CPI-based comparisons show elevated year-over-year retail prices even after wholesale normalization, and long-term inflation-adjusted series show eggs rose in real terms since pre-2022 levels though with sharp temporal spikes ^{[2] [3] [4]}. The mixed indicators explain why statements about “how much” prices changed can be true in narrow senses while missing broader context.

Sources cited above document these patterns with varied emphases: market reports and USDA indices for price levels and trends ^{[3] [1]}, investigative and policy pieces linking supply shocks and political actions ^{[2] [6] [5]}, and historical series for context on longer-term inflation and year-by-year averages ^{[4] [7]}.