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Grocery prices are lower today than in 2022, 2023, 2024
Executive Summary
The claim that “grocery prices are lower today than in 2022, 2023, 2024” does not hold up to available U.S. and global data: U.S. food-at-home prices rose sharply in 2022 and continued to be higher in 2023 and 2024, with mixed signals in 2025; global commodity indices have eased from the 2022 peak but remain uneven across categories. The truth is nuanced — headline indexes are down from their early‑2022 peaks, but U.S. grocery basket prices through 2024 and into 2025 were generally higher than in 2022, not lower [1] [2] [3].
1. What people claim and why it sounds simple — but it isn’t
The core claim is binary: grocery prices today are lower than each of the last three years. That assertion collapses a complex set of measures into one statement and ignores differences between headline food indexes, U.S. food‑at‑home (grocery) inflation, and category‑level variation. The evidence in the reviewed material shows major U.S. measures recording very large increases in 2022, smaller but positive increases in 2023 and 2024, and further modest increases into 2025 in many series. Thus the claim fails because it treats a multi‑year, multi‑metric phenomenon as if all indicators moved identically. Multiple sources emphasize that some categories fell while others continued to rise, so a single “lower today” claim misstates the heterogeneous reality [4] [5].
2. U.S. data: broad grocery prices were higher in 2023 and 2024 than 2022 levels
U.S. government data and analyses in the record show a clear, quantifiable pattern: food-at-home prices rose 11.4% in 2022, about 5.8% in 2023, and roughly 1.2% in 2024, meaning the average grocery basket in 2024 remained above its 2022 level even though growth slowed [4] [2]. The USDA Economic Research Service and Bureau of Labor Statistics figures cited indicate continuing positive year‑over‑year changes into 2025 in several reports, with food‑at‑home projected to rise further in 2025. These U.S. datasets show the 2022 spike did not reverse into a blanket price decline afterwards; instead, inflation decelerated but did not consistently produce lower nominal grocery prices across the board [1] [2].
3. Forecasts and some measures: slowing inflation and selective declines create confusion
Several authoritative sources note that inflation for groceries decelerated after the 2022 surge and that some categories were expected to see price declines or near‑stability in 2024–2025. The USDA projected lower growth rates for food‑at‑home in 2024 and modest rises in 2025, and analyses from global institutions reported easing commodity prices in early 2025 driven by improved supplies [5] [6]. Those projections underpin headlines such as “grocery prices falling,” but the projections still generally show 2024 and 2025 prices above 2022 levels in U.S. domestic series. The upshot is that slower inflation or projected small declines does not equal that prices are now lower than every prior year since 2022 [5] [6].
4. Global commodity indexes fell from 2022 peaks but mask meat, egg, and category volatility
International indicators such as the FAO Food Price Index and World Bank commodity indexes document that global food prices dropped from their March 2022 highs, with cereals, dairy and oils contributing to that decline, yet meat prices in some reports reached new highs and other commodities remained volatile [3] [6]. These global patterns help explain lower headline indexes relative to the 2022 peak, and they partially validate statements that food prices are lower than 2022 on a global commodity basis. However, global index declines do not translate directly to lower grocery bills for U.S. households because retail grocery prices reflect domestic supply chains, category‑specific shocks (avian flu, beef markets), tariffs, and policy effects cited in U.S. reports [3] [7].
5. Bottom line: the claim is not supported as stated — the reality is mixed and context‑dependent
Summing the records cited, the categorical statement that grocery prices are lower today than in 2022, 2023, and 2024 is not supported by U.S. data showing cumulative higher food‑at‑home prices through 2024 and projected modest rises in 2025. Global commodity indices are down from the 2022 peak, which explains some optimistic headlines, but they also show uneven category performance, and U.S. household grocery costs did not uniformly fall back below 2022 levels [2] [3]. The accurate portrayal is nuanced: prices rose sharply in 2022, growth slowed in subsequent years, some commodities eased, but the average U.S. grocery bill remained higher than in 2022 through 2024 [4] [8].