Which U.S. industries would be most affected by large-scale deportations of undocumented workers?
Executive summary
Large-scale deportations would hit labor-intensive sectors hardest—construction, agriculture, hospitality and food processing, manufacturing, and transportation—because undocumented workers comprise a significant share of employment in those fields and their sudden removal would create immediate shortages and higher costs [1] [2] [3]. Researchers and policy centers warn the ripple effects would spread to housing, local services, and supply chains, even as political actors claim short-term gains in native-born employment and public safety that are contested by economists [4] [5] [6].
1. Construction: the backbone strained and homebuilding stalled
Construction is widely identified as among the most exposed industries—immigrants made up more than 23 percent of the construction workforce in 2023, with estimates that about half of those are undocumented, and mass removals could cut construction labor sharply, slowing homebuilding and pushing up prices [4] [1] [2]. Analyses from the American Immigration Council and Urban Institute point to disruptions across trades—plasterers, roofers, painters and general laborers—with some specialties losing upward of 30 percent of workers in a mass-deportation scenario [1] [4]. Historical evidence from stricter enforcement programs shows lasting declines in construction employment and higher home prices in affected areas, underscoring that vacancies would not quickly be filled by native-born workers [4] [5].
2. Agriculture and food supply: fragile harvests and rising grocery bills
Agriculture faces acute vulnerability because a large share of farm labor is undocumented; the Department of Agriculture has been cited saying roughly 42 percent of U.S. farmworkers are undocumented, and mass removals would shrink the harvest workforce, slow seasonal operations, and likely raise consumer food prices [2] [1]. The American Immigration Council and Baker Institute both flag the sector for large percentage losses among graders, sorters and fieldworkers, while reporting and researchers warn that many U.S.-born workers do not shift into grueling manual farm work, meaning lost production rather than simple substitution [1] [3] [7].
3. Hospitality, restaurants and cleaning services: local economies and service chains
Hospitality and food service would lose hundreds of thousands of workers in mass deportation models—estimates suggest about one in 14 hospitality workers could be undocumented and that a quarter of housekeeping cleaners would be removed—producing immediate closures, shorter hours, and higher menu and lodging prices [1] [3]. Urban and local analyses also link reduced immigrant populations to losses in demand that can cascade, hurting U.S.-born workers in complementary jobs and shrinking tax bases for municipalities [5] [8].
4. Manufacturing, transportation and warehousing: choke points in supply chains
Manufacturing and transportation/warehousing are repeatedly flagged as sectors that would lose large numbers of employees—Baker Institute projects hundreds of thousands of positions at risk in manufacturing and nearly half a million in transportation and warehousing—raising the likelihood of production slowdowns, logistics bottlenecks and cost pass-throughs to consumers [3] [9]. Reporting on recent worksite raids shows immediate local drops in workforce participation and absenteeism driven by fear, not only deportations, further disrupting operations [10] [11].
5. Health care, childcare, and less-visible skilled roles: long-term gaps
Beyond manual labor, studies find undocumented workers fill roles across health care, childcare, and even some skilled technical occupations; briefs warn that deportations would worsen shortages in home health aides, childcare providers, and certain growing occupations that require training, undermining care networks and future occupational pipelines [3] [12] [8]. The Joint Economic Committee and other analysts also highlight that a non-trivial share of undocumented workers hold college degrees or are enrolled in U.S. institutions, meaning removals can erode human capital the economy already trained [13].
6. Net effects and contested claims: displacement, inflation, and political framing
Economists at Brookings and independent fact checks argue deportations tend to shrink labor markets and harm U.S.-born employment through lost demand and complementary job losses, and estimates show deportations can reduce growth and raise costs for consumers [5] [14]. By contrast, the White House has publicly claimed large native-born employment gains and public-safety improvements following enforcement actions—claims that outside economists and several policy centers contest or contextualize as short-term or insufficiently causal [6] [5]. Where the reporting is silent, precise national totals and the timeline of adjustments remain uncertain; the best-supported conclusion across sources is clear: industries with high concentrations of undocumented workers—construction, agriculture, hospitality, food processing, manufacturing, transportation, and care services—would suffer the largest and most immediate harm [1] [2] [3].