Is the economy better now than it was in 2024?

Executive summary — Short answer: mixed signals, tilt toward deterioration

The question "Is the economy better now than it was in 2024?" has no single factual yes/no answer; available indicators point to a mixed picture with recent signs of weakening versus some strong pockets of growth, and most public sentiment and independent forecasts tilt toward a somewhat worse outlook now than in 2024. Survey evidence shows persistently negative public ratings of the economy and increased pessimism about the year ahead, while official output and income data through mid‑2025 show pockets of strength. Forecasters and scenario analyses, however, have downgraded near‑term growth and flagged tariffs, fiscal changes, and slowing labor dynamics as meaningful drags on momentum ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

1. Public sentiment and consumer concerns suggest improvement is not broadly felt

Public polling in late 2025 finds large majorities still describing conditions as only fair or poor and shifting toward expecting worse conditions next year, signaling that whatever macro progress exists it has not translated into stronger public confidence or diminished day‑to‑day economic anxiety ^[1]. The Pew survey documented 74% rating conditions as fair/poor in September 2025 versus 72% in January 2024, and a plurality expecting deterioration, with concerns concentrated on food, housing, and energy costs. This gap between macro metrics and household sentiment matters because consumer behavior drives much of U.S. GDP; sustained weak confidence tends to depress spending and economic momentum. Economists treat sentiment slippage as an early warning sign, and the polling aligns with forecasts that downgrade consumer spending growth in 2026, implying households increasingly feel the economy is not better now than it was in 2024 ^{[4] [5]}.

2. Output and income data offer mixed but not uniformly strong evidence of improvement

Official statistics through mid‑2025 show real GDP and personal income gains in many states and a narrowing current‑account deficit, signaling tangible activity and income growth in the short run ^[3]. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 3.8% annualized national GDP growth in Q2 2025 and personal income rising across all 50 states, which are clear positives compared with 2024. But these gains coexist with other indicators—forecasts and higher‑frequency data—pointing to decelerating momentum later in 2025, and some measures such as forecasts of slower quarterly growth and softening hiring suggest those mid‑year gains may not persist. In short, official mid‑2025 data show improvement in specific metrics but do not conclusively establish that the economy is sustainably better than in 2024 ^{[3] [6]}.

3. Labor market softness and inflation dynamics complicate the comparison

The labor market remained comparatively strong through much of 2024, and sluggish hiring and reduced labor churn in 2025 have tempered that resilience; forecasters now expect higher unemployment and weaker payroll gains in 2026 compared with 2024 levels ^{[6] [4]}. Inflation has cooled since 2022 but has not returned to a smooth path; episodes of hotter readings in early 2025 and renewed price pressure complicate real‑income improvements. A weaker labor market and stickier inflation combine to erode real purchasing power and raise the odds that households feel worse off than a year earlier, even if headline GDP growth looks acceptable. Forecasts projecting unemployment rising to around 4.5% and consumer spending slowing point toward a moderately worse near‑term picture relative to 2024 ^[4].

4. Policy shifts and external shocks are the main drivers of the downgrade narrative

Several independent analyses single out higher tariffs, sharply lower net migration, and fiscal policy changes as material drags on growth relative to 2024. Tariff expansions since early‑2025 are modeled to raise input costs and cut trade volumes, while immigration declines reduce labor supply and potential output; recent fiscal measures also removed significant support programs, raising downside risk in many forecasts ^{[2] [5]}. Private forecasters such as Deloitte and conference‑board style models incorporate these policy shifts and produce slower growth scenarios for 2026, often after a plateau or modest improvement in 2025. The consensus in these forecasts is not collapse but a clearer tilt toward slower growth and higher risk than the trajectory that prevailed at the end of 2024 ^{[4] [5]}.

5. Bottom line: nuanced verdict — better in places, worse on balance

Putting the pieces together, the economy is not uniformly better now than in 2024; it is better by some mid‑year metrics but worse by several forward‑looking indicators and public experience measures. Mid‑2025 GDP and income figures show pockets of strength, but weakening high‑frequency data, downgraded forecasts, softer labor market signals, and negative public sentiment lead forecasters to project slower growth and higher unemployment ahead. Analysts present multiple scenarios—baseline, downside, and upside—highlighting that policy choices, tariff trajectories, and migration patterns will determine whether the recent softening becomes a prolonged deterioration or a transitory pause ^{[3] [4] [7]}. The preponderance of recent analytical work tilts toward the economy being in a more precarious position now than it was in 2024, even if some headline numbers still look positive.