Which sectors are expected to contribute most to U.S. GDP in 2026 vs 2025?
Executive summary
Private investment in technology—especially data centers, information-processing equipment and software—was the single biggest driver of U.S. growth through 2025 and is widely forecast to remain the top contributor to GDP growth in 2026, while consumption and traditional sectors (manufacturing, real estate, retail) are expected to contribute less or even subtract without the tech boost [1] [2] [3]. Major forecasters project GDP growth slowing from roughly 2.0–1.7% in 2025 toward around 1.4–1.9% in 2026, with business investment and trade the most uncertain components [4] [5] [2].
1. Tech investment is the story — and the tail that wags the dog
Multiple research and consultancy notes show that private technology spending—AI-led capital expenditures in data centers, servers, software and R&D—accounted for a disproportionate share of 2025’s GDP growth and is expected to be the principal contributor again in 2026. CaixaBank Research and EY point to very large rises in data‑center and information‑processing spending that alone accounted for a material share of H1 2025 growth [1] [2]. Harvard economist Jason Furman and subsequent press coverage argue that without the data‑center buildout, growth in early‑ to mid‑2025 would have been close to zero, underscoring how dependent recent GDP gains are on this narrow investment surge [3].
2. Consumption still matters, but its share is shrinking in these forecasts
Consumer spending remains the largest single component of GDP in level terms, and services spending outpaced goods in 2024–25. But forecasters warn that consumption growth will moderate in 2026 because hiring slows and inflation remains sticky, so consumption is not expected to drive stronger GDP gains next year the way tech investment has in 2025 [6] [7] [2]. Analysts at EY explicitly expect consumption growth to ease in 2026 even as AI investment supports headline figures [2].
3. Business investment: still positive but slowing and concentrated
Most models say business investment will continue to contribute to GDP through 2026, but with clear caveats: the growth is concentrated in information processing equipment, software and AI‑adjacent capex rather than broad-based machinery or structures. Deloitte and EY project business investment growth to moderate in 2026—Deloitte citing a fall from mid‑2025 rates to roughly 3% growth in business investment in 2026—leaving the overall investment contribution dependent on the stay of AI spending [5] [2].
4. Trade and inventories remain swing factors with big uncertainty
Trade produced unusually large swings in 2025—net exports added heavily to Q2 2025 growth because of a dramatic import pullback—and forecasters flag foreign trade as the most uncertain sector for 2026. Deloitte explicitly singles out foreign trade as the “biggest question mark,” meaning trade’s contribution could flip from a net positive to a drag depending on import patterns, tariffs and global demand [4] [5].
5. Housing, manufacturing and services — underperformers unless conditions change
Multiple sources indicate that outside the tech investment surge, other sectors were weak in H1 2025 and may not rebound strongly in 2026. Fortune’s coverage of Furman’s analysis and reporting from consultancy notes show manufacturing, real estate, retail and many services contributed little or even detracted from growth in 2025; forecasters expect these sectors to remain subdued absent lower rates or a broader pickup in demand [3] [2].
6. Forecast ranges: modest growth, with 2026 softer than 2025
Consensus and firm-specific forecasts in the provided reporting place 2025 growth near about 2.0% (EY’s near‑term view) with 2026 ranging from roughly 1.4% to 1.9% depending on assumptions about tariffs, immigration and the persistence of AI investment [4] [2] [5]. EY forecasts 1.7% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026 in one note, while another EY write‑up cites a 2.0% 2025 and 1.9% 2026 baseline—illustrating model sensitivity to policy and investment assumptions [4] [2].
7. Competing viewpoints and hidden agendas to watch
Some outlets (Harvard‑linked analysis highlighted by Fortune) emphasize the fragility of the expansion, arguing growth is narrowly concentrated in tech and could evaporate if that spending halts [3]. Consultancy firms and banks that publish optimistic tech‑led scenarios (EY, CaixaBank, Goldman Sachs commentary) have institutional incentives to highlight GDP upside tied to large corporate investments and policy credit (e.g., CHIPS Act) that benefit their clients or markets; Deloitte and others stress trade and housing risks that can cut both ways [1] [2] [5] [8].
Limitations: the BEA’s industry‑by‑industry detailed releases underpin many of these assessments but future contributions will reflect rapidly changing investment patterns, tariff effects and immigration policy; available sources do not provide a definitive, BEA‑tabulated 2026 industry‑by‑industry breakdown yet [6] [9].