How did staple food prices (wheat, rice, corn) move between 2024 and 2025?
Executive summary
Global market indicators show mixed but generally softer cereal prices between 2024 and 2025: wheat and corn experienced periods of volatility with pockets of later firmness, while rice saw a pronounced retreat from 2024 highs to much lower quotations in 2025, with major agencies reporting overall easing in cereal price pressure year‑on‑year [1] [2] [3].
1. Wheat: from 2024 spikes to a gentler 2025
Wheat surged through 2024 amid geopolitical shocks and supply concerns, but by 2025 markets had more supply cushion and prices eased from their 2024 highs — the IGC and OECD note that wheat prices were volatile in late 2024 and generally lower year‑on‑year by February 2025 even as monthly rebounds occurred, with the IGC GOI wheat sub‑index slightly lower than a year earlier while also showing episodic monthly gains [3] [4]. Global supply updates from the USDA/WASDE and World Bank paint a nuanced picture: world production revisions lifted total grains and record outputs reduced upward pressure overall, though the World Bank still flagged a slightly lower supply/use ratio for wheat in 2024‑25 due to falling stocks in some exporters, keeping upside risk if weather or policy tightened exports [5] [2].
2. Corn (maize): price swings, tightened stocks, but regional divergence
Corn prices moved through wide swings — early 2024 saw three‑year lows for maize on larger output from major exporters, yet by late 2024 into early 2025 maize prices climbed, with OECD reporting monthly maize prices rising from mid‑2024 and reaching about USD 221/t by February 2025 as tighter balances and stronger U.S. export demand tightened markets [2] [3]. Supply metrics were mixed: WASDE showed global corn stocks modestly lower (global corn stocks down about 2.2 million tonnes in one WASDE summary) even as some exporters like Argentina and the United States expanded output, creating regional competition that pressured some exporters’ shipments and shifted trade flows [5] [6]. Agencies flagged a declining global stock‑to‑use ratio into 2025‑26 for maize, signalling structurally tighter conditions despite short‑term reliefs [7].
3. Rice: the most dramatic downward shift in 2025
Rice prices diverged sharply from 2024: after strong gains into late 2023 and early 2024, rice quotations fell substantially through 2025 — the FAO reports the All Rice Price Index averaged 103.5 points in 2025, a drop of 35.2 percent from 2024, driven by ample export availabilities, intense exporter competition and policy reversals such as the lifting of Indian restrictions and large northern‑hemisphere harvest prospects [1] [3]. The World Bank and IGC both note abundant rice supplies and competitive exports in 2025, which undercut the earlier rally and left rice as the cereal with the largest year‑on‑year decline in many indices [2] [4].
4. What drove the differences across staples?
Drivers differed by grain: wheat was sensitive to geopolitics and regional stock declines even as global production recovered, corn reacted to weather, biofuel demand and shifting export competition (notably between the U.S., Brazil and Argentina), and rice movements reflected policy changes and heavy competition among exporters that unleashed stocks into world markets; these dynamics are documented by USDA/WASDE, OECD‑FAO and the World Bank analyses [5] [3] [2]. Trade policy shifts and export tax decisions — for example changes in Argentine export taxes — also altered competitiveness and flows, adding heterogeneity to price outcomes by origin [6].
5. Conflicting signals and forecasts: where forecasts diverge from recorded moves
Forecasting outlets and market commentators offered varying takes: private forecasts flagged continued price support for wheat into 2025 on tightness and conflict‑related risk (FarmRaise), while multilateral agencies pointed to easing cereal price indices and forecasts of lower or stabilising prices across 2024–25 as supplies rose overall [8] [2] [1]. These differences reflect agendas and methods — private commentary often emphasizes downside crop risks and farmer planning, whereas institutional reports aggregate survey data and trade flows and therefore present a more supply‑driven, macro view [8] [2] [1].
6. Bottom line and limits of reporting
Between 2024 and 2025, cereal markets generally moved from crisis‑period volatility toward a more relaxed supply picture for maize and rice and a mixed, still‑sensitive wheat market: rice fell sharply year‑on‑year, maize recovered from lows and tightened later in 2025, and wheat was volatile with lower averages than 2024 but episodic rebounds — conclusions supported by FAO, World Bank, OECD‑FAO, USDA/WASDE and IGC reporting [1] [2] [3] [5] [4]. Reporting limitations include differences in index definitions, marketing year timing and country‑level policy changes that make direct month‑to‑month comparisons imperfect; where such granular price series are not in the provided sources, this account does not assert precise daily price trajectories [6] [5].