Which states or cities already had $15 minimum wages by 2021 and what were their outcomes?

1. Who had $15 by 2021: the short list and the patchwork

Local ordinances and state schedules produced a patchwork rather than a single national shift: New York City’s minimum reached $15 for many workers by 2018 and New York State scheduled broader reaches toward $15 by 2021; Seattle enacted a city law in 2014 that phased to $15 by 2021; Washington, D.C., and other jurisdictions set rates at or above $15 around that time as well — while many states continued gradual increases or city-specific rules ^{[1] [3] [7] [5]}.

2. Why the patchwork matters: different rules, different workers

Minimum-wage laws varied by employer size, industry, or geography. New York’s rollout, for example, hit large employers earlier and smaller firms later; some municipal laws covered public employees or tipped workers differently. That means “$15 by 2021” did not mean universal coverage for all low-wage workers in a state or city, complicating simple before/after statements about impacts ^{[1] [7]}.

3. Empirical outcomes: wages rose, poverty fell in many studies

Multiple academic analyses cited by policy groups report that local minimum-wage increases raised earnings for low-wage workers and reduced poverty without large employment losses. Dube and Lindner ^[8] and Godoey and Reich ^[8] found positive wage effects and “little effect on the number of low-wage jobs” in studied cities and counties ^[4]. Brookings likewise argues higher regional minimums can push many struggling households toward self-sufficiency in less-expensive metro areas ^[6].

4. Contrasting estimates and the employment debate

Not all authoritative estimates agree. The Congressional Budget Office’s 2021 projection for a federal $15-by-2025 scenario predicted significant reach (millions affected) but also projected net employment reductions (the CBO estimated job losses and a smaller number of people lifted out of poverty) — a reminder that local results do not automatically scale to a uniform federal policy ^[5]. This disagreement reflects methodological differences (local empirical studies vs. economy-wide modeling) and geographic heterogeneity.

5. Local experience: Seattle as a high-profile case

Seattle’s phased $15 law (enacted 2014, reaching $15 by 2021) became a test case. Journalistic and academic follow-ups highlight clear increases in worker pay and local consumption benefits; proponents say the law spurred higher household incomes and local spending. Critics have pointed to mixed findings on hours and employment in particular sub-sectors, and researchers note results depend on comparison groups and analytical choices ^{[3] [4]}.

6. Cost-of-living and distributional nuance: winners vary by place

Research emphasizes that $15 has very different effects in high-cost metros (San Francisco, New York, San Jose) versus smaller, lower-cost cities. Brookings finds a $15 wage would lift a larger share of struggling households into self-sufficiency in small- and mid-sized cities than in the most expensive metros, where fewer households gain the same margin ^[6]. Thus political and policy debates hinge on distributional details, not only headline numbers.

7. Data and inventory sources: measuring what changed

Comprehensive inventories (e.g., UC Berkeley’s catalog of local ordinances) and trackers (EPI, DOL tables) document where statutes applied and how schedules progressed; these resources are the basis for many empirical analyses and are necessary to interpret outcomes in each jurisdiction rather than assuming uniform effects ^{[9] [10] [11]}.

8. Takeaway for readers: evidence converges — but context decides policy

Available research in our sources converges on two core findings: local $15-ish increases raised low-wage pay and helped reduce hardship in many places, and many rigorous studies find only modest employment effects at the local level ^{[4] [6]}. However, national projections such as the CBO’s differ and emphasize potential job losses at scale, and outcomes depend heavily on local cost structures, business mixes, and policy design ^{[5] [2]}. Available sources do not mention a comprehensive, single list in this package of every state/city with $15 by 2021 — use the UC Berkeley inventory and EPI tracker for jurisdiction-level details ^{[9] [10]}.