Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: How did Trump's energy policies, such as deregulation, impact gas prices?
Executive summary
President Trump’s deregulatory energy push is tied to both short-term downward pressure on oil prices through increased domestic production and to countervailing forces that can raise consumer energy costs, producing mixed effects on gasoline prices. Short-run impacts show price declines linked to production and policy changes, while longer-term effects depend on global market dynamics, export decisions, and regulatory reversals [1] [2] [3] [4]. This analysis compares empirical findings, administration claims, and advocacy analyses to show where evidence converges and where significant uncertainty remains.
1. Why prices initially moved: production gains and early deregulation produced measurable downward pressure
Multiple accounts attribute a rapid fall in oil prices during President Trump’s opening months to a combination of policy actions that encouraged exploration and production, plus broader market factors. A May 8, 2025 study documents an 18 percent decline in oil prices during Trump’s first 100 days and links that drop in part to deregulation and increased domestic output, while explicitly acknowledging that global supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical risks also influence prices [1]. The administration’s own actions—31 EPA deregulatory moves launched to implement Day One executive orders and an Executive Order to expand energy exploration on federal lands—were aimed at raising production and lowering costs for consumers, and such policy signals can accelerate investment and output that depress wholesale oil prices in the near term [2] [3]. These contemporaneous production effects are the clearest pathway through which U.S. policy can lower gasoline prices domestically.
2. Why some studies and sectors point the other way: deregulation’s complex price signaling
Evidence from other energy markets and historical deregulation episodes shows that removing rules can produce counterintuitive price outcomes. Studies of retail gasoline entry effects and electricity-market deregulation find that market structure, competition, and firm markups matter: entry can lower localized retail spreads, while electricity deregulation has in some cases raised consumer prices and lowered welfare through higher markups [5] [6]. The academic literature therefore warns that deregulation is not a mechanical path to lower consumer prices; outcomes depend on whether increased supply reaches consumers, how market power shifts among incumbents, and whether policy changes encourage higher-margin activities such as exports. These structural considerations introduce a plausible route for deregulation to produce higher or unchanged gasoline prices despite higher domestic production.
3. Advocacy groups and policy analysts report household cost increases tied to recent administration moves
Advocacy and policy organizations have published recent analyses linking Trump administration actions to higher household energy costs. A Food & Water Watch article dated October 29, 2025 reports faster-than-inflation energy price increases and blames administration policies for raising costs, while a May 30, 2025 piece argues household electric bills rose by about 10 percent amid expanded LNG exports and related actions [4] [7]. The Center for American Progress enumerated administration measures—tariffs, export expansion, cuts to assistance programs—expected to raise electricity prices and burden consumers [8]. These sources emphasize downstream impacts and policy trade-offs; their analyses rely on different assumptions about transmission from wholesale markets and export behavior, and they reflect advocacy perspectives that can prioritize distributional harms.
4. How exports and global markets can flip domestic price effects
A decisive variable is the extent to which increased U.S. production is exported rather than retained for domestic consumption. The administration’s push to expand liquefied natural gas exports and federally permitted fossil-fuel development can channel U.S. supply into global markets, where higher global demand and prices can feed back into domestic gasoline and electricity costs [7] [3]. The May 2025 study that recorded an early oil-price decline also cautioned that global market dynamics and geopolitical risks could offset domestic gains, pointing to volatility in crude benchmarks that domestic policy alone cannot control [1]. The net effect on pump prices therefore hinges on export volumes, refinery capacity, and international price convergence mechanisms that can transmit global price swings back to U.S. consumers.
5. Synthesis: measured short-run relief, uncertain long-run net effect—policy choices matter
The best available evidence shows initial short-run downward pressure on oil prices linked to deregulation and increased U.S. output, but multiple peer-reviewed and policy analyses indicate that structural market features, export policy, and regulatory reversals can alter that trajectory and even raise consumer energy costs over time [1] [6] [8]. Advocacy sources emphasize distributional impacts and highlight actions likely to increase household bills, while academic work warns of unintended consequences from deregulation. Policy design—whether new production is balanced by domestic supply retention, whether market competition is preserved, and how externalities are managed—will determine whether deregulation produces sustained lower gasoline prices or shifts costs onto households and the environment [2] [5].