Fact check: Do Democrats or Republicans have higher high school graduation rates in the United States as of 2025?

1. Why a straightforward partisan ranking is missing and what the best study actually says

No single federal dataset or reputable national report released in 2025 provides a direct table comparing states’ high school graduation rates by the party of governors or state legislatures. The closest substantive empirical claim comes from a regression-discontinuity study published in April 2025 that documents average and heterogeneous effects of party control on state education finance and outcomes, finding that Democratic state houses increased K–12 appropriations after off-cycle elections and that this funding shift coincided with improvements in graduation rates in some contexts ^[1]. This study offers credible causal evidence about budgetary decisions and subsequent education outcomes in narrowly decided legislative switches, but it does not equate to a nationwide partisan leaderboard, and its effects vary by state and circumstance ^[1].

2. Federal data give context but stop short of partisan verdicts

The U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics provides detailed data on graduation rates and related postsecondary and employment outcomes by socioeconomic groups, but it does not map those metrics to party control of state governments in a way that answers the user’s binary question ^[2]. Analysts can and do link socioeconomic factors—family income, race, rural versus urban status—to graduation probabilities, showing structural drivers of graduation rates that may intersect with partisan policy but are not reducible solely to which party holds state power ^[2]. Thus, federal data provide crucial context but require additional analytic linkage to partisan variables.

3. Recent reports emphasize pandemic recovery and funding impacts rather than party winners

A February 2025 education recovery report highlighted the role of federal pandemic relief aid and evidence-based reforms in shaping student achievement but explicitly did not produce a partisan comparison of graduation rates ^[4]. The report’s emphasis is that investment and targeted interventions matter for recovery, a finding which aligns with the April 2025 study’s mechanism—funding changes lead to measurable student outcome shifts—but the report stops short of attributing outcomes directly to Democratic or Republican governance across states ^[4].

4. State-level reporting exists but varies; one must beware of selective citations

State education offices regularly publish graduation rates and some partisan analyses overlay those figures with control of state government, but these are often methodologically inconsistent and politically motivated. The October 2025 compilation of high school graduation rates referenced in an education overview provides up-to-date state rates but does not draw partisan conclusions, highlighting methodological caution when interpreting raw state numbers without accounting for demographics, timing of policy changes, and funding patterns ^[3]. Exit-poll style sources and headline collections are ill-suited to answer the technical question and sometimes reflect electoral messaging rather than rigorous educational analysis ^{[5] [6]}.

5. How researchers interpret the link between party control, funding, and outcomes

Scholars synthesize that party control plausibly shapes priorities for K–12 funding, accountability, and program choices, which in turn can affect graduation rates over time; the April 2025 study provides quasi-experimental evidence of that pathway for narrowly decided legislative changes ^[1]. However, the size, timing, and durability of those effects vary by state context, preexisting inequities, and policy implementation, meaning partisan affiliation is one of several interacting causal factors rather than a deterministic predictor of graduation outcomes ^{[1] [2]}.

6. Competing narratives and possible agendas to watch for in claims

Political actors on both sides may cite selective state examples or single studies to assert that their party produces better schooling outcomes; these claims often omit heterogeneity and confounders such as income, urbanization, and pandemic impacts. Advocacy pieces and some media headlines can conflate correlation with causation or rely on incomplete datasets ^{[5] [6]}. The April 2025 academic study is methodologically rigorous but limited to specific electoral discontinuities, and the federal data sources emphasize socioeconomic determinants rather than partisan labels ^{[1] [2]}.

7. Bottom line for the question asked and what would be needed to resolve it definitively

Answering “Do Democrats or Republicans have higher high school graduation rates in the United States as of 2025?” requires a comprehensive, peer-reviewed analysis that merges state-level graduation-rate time series with precise indicators of partisan control, funding flows, and demographic controls; such a nationwide partisan ranking is not present in the cited 2025 sources. The best existing evidence shows Democratic control has been associated with increased K–12 appropriations and localized improvements in graduation outcomes in studied cases, but federal datasets and broad reports do not establish a uniform partisan advantage nationwide ^{[1] [2] [4]}.