Do immigrants lower U.S. test scores and raise the amount of crime in the country?
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Executive summary
Research does not support a simple claim that immigrants lower U.S. test scores or raise crime. Multiple peer-reviewed and policy studies find immigrant presence often correlates with equal or higher academic outcomes for U.S.-born peers (e.g., Figlio et al. NBER and earlier UCLA/Northwestern analyses) and broad literature shows immigrants commit crimes at similar or lower rates than the U.S.-born (e.g., Migration Policy, American Immigration Council) [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Test scores: the headline and what it actually measures
Recent working papers and news coverage document localized drops in standardized spring 2025 test scores in a large Florida county tied to heightened immigration enforcement operations, not the mere presence of immigrant students; Figlio and Özek link increases in immigration arrests to modest spring declines, concentrated in high-poverty schools and among Spanish-speaking students, and note effects on U.S.-born students in those communities as well [5] [6] [7]. Those results focus on enforcement-induced disruption (attendance, stress) rather than a general, causal effect of immigrant classmates on learning [6].
2. Countervailing evidence: immigrant classmates can boost outcomes
A separate body of research finds exposure to immigrant peers often benefits U.S.-born students. Working papers and university summaries report that U.S.-born children with higher cumulative exposure to immigrant classmates scored better in math and reading than peers with low exposure; sibling-based designs in these studies indicate positive effects for many groups [2] [8] [1]. Authoritative summaries stress that raw correlations (schools with many immigrants having lower averages) reflect selection and socioeconomic confounders, not simple peer-driven harm [9].
3. Mechanism: enforcement, attendance and concentrated disadvantage
Studies linking enforcement to scores highlight mechanisms distinct from immigrant skill or behavior: immigration raids raise absenteeism and anxiety, especially in high-poverty schools and among language-minority families, which depresses spring testing results; Figlio and Özek’s Florida analysis and other work stress attendance and fear as drivers [6] [7]. Journalistic and policy pieces warn that punitive immigration actions can harm all students in affected communities—citizens and noncitizens alike—through school disruption [5] [6].
4. National context on achievement: many moving parts
National declines or stagnation on some assessments predate recent immigration spikes and involve multiple causes—pandemic recovery, changing student demographics, funding shifts and higher shares of English learners and students with disabilities—so attributing broad national test declines to immigration alone ignores substantial evidence on other drivers [10] [11]. Reports also note immigrant skill distributions vary by origin and generation, yielding heterogeneous effects across districts [12] [13].
5. Crime: what the trend data and reviews show
A large and growing scholarly consensus finds no reliable link between higher immigrant shares and higher crime; many studies show immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated or to commit crimes than the U.S.-born, and some analyses even associate immigration with reductions in violent crime in certain places [14] [15] [3]. State- and national-level work from Migration Policy, the American Immigration Council and long-run incarceration studies support the finding that immigration does not increase overall crime rates [3] [4] [15].
6. Recent enforcement data complicate political claims
News analyses of ICE operations show most people arrested in 2025 upticks had no prior criminal convictions, and the share with violent convictions fell, undermining rhetoric that current crackdowns target a population steeped in violent crime [16]. Advocacy and research groups caution that rhetoric linking immigration to crime often serves political agendas and is not borne out by the empirical record [4] [17].
7. How to interpret competing findings responsibly
The research implies three practical rules: 1) distinguish immigrant presence from immigration enforcement—policy can harm schooling even if immigrant peers are academically neutral or beneficial [6] [2]; 2) control for socioeconomic selection—schools with many immigrants often also face concentrated poverty that depresses averages [9] [10]; and 3) rely on multiple measures—incarceration, arrests, victimization and longitudinal tests each tell different parts of the story [15] [18] [19].
8. Limits of the available reporting and open questions
Available sources document district-level enforcement harms in specific 2025 cases and broad literature on immigration and crime, but they do not provide a definitive national causal estimate tying immigrant classroom presence to contemporary nationwide test trends—national analyses are hampered by differing data, selection effects and recent policy shocks [5] [1] [3]. Future work should combine longitudinal student-level achievement, local enforcement measures and community sociodemographics to disentangle effects.
Bottom line: current research shows immigrant presence is not a reliable cause of worse academic or crime outcomes; enforcement actions and concentrated disadvantage explain many observed harms to schooling, and crime data consistently show immigrants are as safe or safer than the U.S.-born [6] [2] [3] [4].