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How have applicant pools and yield rates for first-generation, low-income, and minority students shifted at top universities post-2020?
Executive summary
Top-university applicant pools and yields for first-generation, low-income, and minority students shifted sharply around 2020: enrollment and deposits from low‑income families fell in 2020 (EAB found deposits from families under $60k down 8.4%) and national tracking showed a 29% plunge in college enrollment among low‑income high‑school grads in fall 2020 [1] [2]. Since then reporting is mixed: some selective colleges have increased economic diversity over a decade while many top schools report declines in specific underrepresented groups after policy changes and pandemic effects [3] [4].
1. Pandemic shock: immediate drops in low‑income and minority participation
The most concrete post‑2020 movement was a pronounced short‑term drop: EAB tracked an 8.4% drop in deposits from families earning under $60,000 as of September 2020, and the National Student Clearinghouse data showed enrollment of low‑income high‑school grads plunged about 29% for fall 2020—evidence that low‑income and some minority student entry fell sharply during the pandemic [1] [2].
2. First‑generation applicants: more applicants nationally but mixed outcomes
National fact sheets and advocacy groups report rising application rates among first‑generation students—FirstGen Forward found first‑gen students are applying to college at roughly twice the rate of continuing‑generation peers and national networks expanded in 2025—yet campus outcomes vary, and institutions report strains supporting these students amid financial pressure and program funding challenges [5] [6] [7].
3. Yield effects: uncertainty, gap years and local choices hurt yields from vulnerable families
Research noted more unpredictable yield patterns post‑2020 as families weighing finances took gap years or chose lower‑cost, closer options—McKinsey and others predicted and early data confirmed lower yields among lower‑income families and greater volatility for first‑time entrants in 2020 [1]. That translated into fewer deposits from lower‑income households and lower initial enrollments for some groups [1].
4. Top universities: uneven changes in economic and racial composition
High‑profile analyses show a split picture at selective colleges: The New York Times College‑Access Index reports that while some wealthy, selective schools increased enrollment of economically disadvantaged students over a decade, most schools saw decreases in Pell‑grant shares by 2020–21—so long‑term trends differ across institutions [3]. BestColleges and other outlets documented declines in certain minority populations at elite campuses after policy shifts like the end of affirmative‑action practices, underscoring institutional variation [4] [8].
5. Data limitations and measurement challenges
Tracking applicant pools versus yield requires different data streams; available sources show strong national signals (deposits, enrollment drops, application trends) but not a uniform, up‑to‑date roster of applicant‑pool composition or yield by socio‑economic or first‑gen status at every top university. Many outlets use Pell‑grant share, institutional reporting, or Common App aggregates, and methods vary—so comparisons across schools and years must account for different definitions and reporting windows [3] [9].
6. Financial and policy drivers behind the shifts
Financial shocks—family income loss during COVID, rising student debt and repayment concerns—and policy changes (test‑optional reversals, legal rulings on affirmative action, state bans on DEI programs) shaped both application behavior and admissions outcomes. Reporting links financial pressure and aid uncertainty to declines in low‑income enrollment, and watchdog/legal activity is influencing institutional choices about outreach and admission practices [1] [2] [4].
7. What institutions and advocates say and do next
Institutions and coalitions responded by expanding first‑gen programs or joining initiatives like FirstGen Forward; survey and practitioner reporting in 2024–25 indicate many campuses rely on federal programs (TRIO, Title III) for first‑gen supports, even as those programs face strain and concern about funding continuity [6] [7]. Admissions offices report continued efforts to recruit underrepresented applicants, and Common App data through 2025 show upticks in applications from underrepresented minorities, first‑gen, and low‑income students—suggesting the applicant side may rebound faster than yields [9].
8. Bottom line and open questions for reporters and policymakers
Available reporting documents a clear COVID‑era setback for low‑income and some minority enrollments and an ongoing rise in first‑gen applications nationally, but institution‑level yield and net enrollment trends at top universities remain uneven and sensitive to policy, pricing, and support programs [1] [5] [3]. Missing from these sources is a comprehensive, up‑to‑date dataset that links applicant origin, admission offers, yield, and matriculation by first‑gen status for the same set of elite institutions—available sources do not mention a single, reconciled longitudinal dataset covering applicant pools and yield at “top universities” post‑2020 (not found in current reporting).
If you want, I can: (a) collect the most recent Pell‑share and admitted/class demographic snapshots for a named set of universities using the sources above, or (b) draft questions for admissions offices and federal data requests that would fill the specific gaps highlighted here.