Fact check: Evidence contradicts the belief that school shooters are often mentally ill, with only about 5% of mass shootings related to severe mental illness

1. Summary of the results

The analyses strongly support the original statement's claim that evidence contradicts the common belief linking school shooters to mental illness. Multiple sources confirm that only approximately 5% of mass shootings are related to severe mental illness ^[1].

Dr. Joel Dvoskin reinforces this finding, explaining that people with serious mental illness are only slightly more likely to commit acts of violence than those without mental illness, and that this risk is small compared to other known risk factors ^[2]. Dr. Eric Elbogen further supports this position by explaining that the causes of violent crime are complex and multifaceted, with mental illness often being overemphasized as a risk factor due to cognitive biases and social stigma ^[3].

One source provides additional statistical context, noting that only 25% of mass shooters have a diagnosed mental illness, and emphasizes that psychiatric illness is "too blunt an instrument to serve as a useful indicator of violence risk" ^[4].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

The original statement omits several important contextual factors that emerge from the analyses:

• The complexity of violence causation: The analyses reveal that violent crime has complex, multifaceted causes that extend far beyond mental health status ^[3]
• Cognitive biases and social stigma: Mental illness is often overemphasized as a risk factor due to systematic biases in how society processes information about violence ^{[3] [2]}
• Threat assessment perspective: One analysis provides a different angle, noting that students who threaten violence (as opposed to those who commit mass shootings) often do have psychiatric or learning disorders, suggesting the relationship between mental health and school violence may vary depending on the specific behavior being examined ^[5]
• Long-term impacts on victims: The analyses also highlight that school shootings have significant mental health consequences for survivors, affecting their educational and economic outcomes ^[6]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement appears to be factually accurate based on the available analyses. However, there are some considerations regarding potential bias:

• Oversimplification: While the 5% figure is supported by multiple sources, the statement could be seen as oversimplifying a complex issue by focusing solely on severe mental illness without acknowledging the broader spectrum of mental health factors
• Missing nuance: The statement doesn't acknowledge that while severe mental illness accounts for only 5% of cases, a broader category of diagnosed mental illness may be present in up to 25% of mass shooters ^[4]
• Beneficiaries of this narrative: Mental health professionals and advocates would benefit from society accepting this viewpoint as it reduces stigma against people with mental illness. Conversely, those who benefit from deflecting attention away from other risk factors (such as access to firearms or social factors) might also find this framing advantageous.

The statement appears to be supported by credible research and expert opinion, with no clear evidence of deliberate misinformation in the analyses provided.