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Fact check: How does the number of school shootings in 2024 compare to previous years?
Executive Summary
The number of gun incidents at U.S. schools in 2024 depends heavily on how “school shooting” is defined: some trackers count any gun discharge or discovery on school property (yielding figures in the hundreds), while others count only shootings that caused injury or death (yielding much smaller counts). Available post‑2024 analyses show two main, divergent tallies—one series reporting roughly 330 school gun incidents in 2024 and another reporting 39 incidents that resulted in injury or death—so comparisons to prior years require attention to those differing criteria [1] [2] [3].
1. Why the counts don’t match—and what each measure captures
Different organizations use distinct inclusion rules, producing divergent totals for “school shootings.” One set of reports counts any gun-related incident on school property, including accidental discharges, threats, shots fired with no injury, and weapons discovered, producing a figure near 330 incidents for 2024 [1] [2]. Another measure restricts the tally to shootings that produced injuries or fatalities, which yields a much smaller number—39 incidents with injury or death reported in 2024, described as the second‑highest since 2018 in that narrower category [3]. These divergent definitions explain the apparent contradiction.
2. How 2024 compares to 2023 depends on the metric you use
When using the broad incident count, some compilations report 330 school incidents in 2024 versus a record 349 in 2023, characterizing 2024 as a slight decline from the peak year [2]. By contrast, the narrower injury/fatality metric indicates 2024 slightly outpaced 2023 in shootings that produced casualties, with 39 such incidents representing a near‑record total since 2018 [3]. Both comparisons are factually reported by different trackers, but they tell different stories about frequency versus lethality.
3. Recent trendlines: pandemic era surge and year‑to‑year volatility
Analysts point to a post‑pandemic surge in school gun incidents compared with pre‑2020 levels, with multiple sources documenting elevated counts in 2023–2025 and noting continued volatility into 2024 and beyond [4] [5]. One database that tracks incidents back decades can place 2024 in long‑term context, showing higher recent activity than in earlier decades, while also highlighting sharp year‑to‑year swings that complicate simple trend statements [6] [5]. The available analyses indicate 2024 fits into a broader multi‑year uptick rather than an isolated spike.
4. Differences in outcomes: injuries, deaths, and where events occur
Beyond raw counts, sources diverge on outcomes and locations: one review emphasized that more than two‑thirds of injury/fatality shootings in 2024 occurred outdoors on school grounds, and that despite a slight rise in such shootings, overall deaths were fewer in some tallies [3]. Security‑oriented reporting highlighted that fatalities and injuries on K‑12 property rose by about seven percent even as overall gun violence fell, signaling a mismatch between general gun‑crime trends and school‑specific harms [1]. These differences matter for policy and prevention choices.
5. Who’s counting—and what their possible agendas are
Data sources include a university‑maintained K‑12 database, media outlets, and a private security firm; each has different missions and potential biases. The K‑12 School Shooting Database offers long historical coverage and technical notes but frames incidents broadly [6] [4]. Education Week’s reporting foregrounds injuries and deaths with narrower inclusion rules [3]. Omnilert, a security vendor, emphasizes protection needs and highlights increases in school fatalities even when overall gun violence fell [1]. Users must weigh those organizational perspectives when interpreting totals.
6. What’s missing from these comparisons and what to watch next
Existing summaries focus on counts and immediate outcomes but omit consistent national standardization, demographic breakdowns, regional context, and school‑level prevention measures; that limits cross‑year comparability [7] [6]. Analysts warn that projections for early 2025 hinge on whether current patterns continue, with some trackers projecting around 30 incidents in January 2025 if trends persist [2]. For robust comparisons, researchers need harmonized definitions, transparent methodology, and ongoing monthly updates from multiple independent trackers.
7. Bottom line for interpreting “how 2024 compares”
The bottom line is simple: both characterizations of 2024 are accurate within their definitions—2024 saw roughly 330 gun‑related incidents on school property under broad criteria and 39 shootings causing injury or death under a narrower harm‑focused definition—and whether 2024 looks worse or slightly better than 2023 depends entirely on which metric you choose [1] [2] [3]. Policymakers and the public should demand clarity on definitions before drawing conclusions from year‑to‑year comparisons and should consult multiple trackers to understand both frequency and severity.