Which Canadian provinces export the most electricity to the USA?
Executive summary
Canada’s largest electricity exporters to the United States are Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Manitoba — collectively responsible for the vast majority of cross‑border power flows — while smaller contributions come from New Brunswick and Newfoundland & Labrador (and most provinces are connected to the U.S. grid) [1] [2] [3]. Annual volumes and the balance of trade vary year to year with weather, prices and transmission constraints, so rankings by volume can shift between years even if the same provinces dominate overall [4] [5].
1. Quebec and Ontario: the heavyweight suppliers
Quebec and Ontario together produce over half of Canada’s electricity and account for more than half of Canada’s electricity exports to the United States, driven by large hydro fleets in Quebec and a mixed generation fleet in Ontario that nonetheless exported roughly 12 TWh in recent years [6] [7] [1]. Multiple federal and industry datasets and analyses single out Quebec and Ontario as the primary exporters and note that New York and other northeastern U.S. markets are major recipients of their power [3] [8] [1].
2. British Columbia and Manitoba: regionally crucial, highly variable
British Columbia and Manitoba are the other major provincial exporters: BC has historically sent significant hydropower west to U.S. markets like California and the Pacific Northwest, while Manitoba’s hydro contracts with U.S. utilities make it a steady, if smaller, exporter [4] [9] [10]. Those flows can swing substantially—BC’s exports dropped sharply in 2023 as U.S. West Coast renewables and an improved hydrological year reduced Californian imports, illustrating how exports depend on regional demand and hydrology [4].
3. Smaller exporters: New Brunswick, Newfoundland & Labrador and the national picture
Beyond the big four, New Brunswick and Newfoundland & Labrador export measurable but much smaller volumes; New Brunswick’s exports can be regionally important (for example, supplying a large fraction of Maine’s needs) despite representing a modest share of Canada’s total export volume [2] [1]. Nationwide, Canada’s electricity trade is mainly with the United States, with exports historically ranging widely by year [5] [8].
4. Why provinces vary year to year — weather, prices, transmission and policy
Interannual swings in export volumes and even temporary net imports by Canada reflect weather (hydro conditions), wholesale prices, available transmission capacity and bilateral contracts; for instance, hydrology-driven increases or decreases in hydro output and growth of U.S. renewables changed 2023 trade patterns in the Western Interconnection [4] [5]. Policy moves also shape flows: Ontario’s 2025 export surcharge episode and U.S. tariff threats underscore how political decisions can alter trade economics and potentially volumes [7] [11].
5. Caveats, competing narratives and stakes in trade talks
Available reporting and government data agree on which provinces dominate exports but differ on emphasis: some industry analyses highlight hydro provinces (Quebec, Manitoba) as strategic decarbonization assets while trade commentaries stress Ontario’s market leverage and large absolute volumes [10] [1]. Public and political pressures—tariff proposals, provincial protection measures—introduce agendas that may inflate the perception of immediate supply risk even when long‑term datasets show a stable pattern of Canadian exports to the U.S. [7] [12]. National datasets (CER, EIA) provide the best empirical guide and show the same core conclusion: Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Manitoba are the provinces that export the most electricity to the United States, with New Brunswick and Newfoundland & Labrador contributing at lower levels and annual totals sensitive to weather, prices and cross‑border contracts [3] [4] [2].