How have Ukraine's 2025 strikes affected Russia's oil export volumes and destinations year-to-date?
Executive summary
Ukraine’s 2025 strikes on Russian refineries, terminals and fuel depots have reduced Russia’s refining runs by an estimated ~10–20% at times and forced Moscow to impose partial export bans on petrol and diesel for domestic stability [1] [2] [3]. Reporting shows strikes hit export terminals (Primorsk, Ust‑Luga, Novorossiysk) and refineries across Russia, disrupting some seaborne flows and prompting both short‑term regional fuel shortages and shifts in how and where Russia moves oil and products [4] [5] [6].
1. What the strikes have physically damaged: refineries, terminals, depots
Ukraine’s campaign has focused on refineries, export terminals and storage depots far behind the front line; open‑source tallies and multiple news investigations document dozens of attacks on refineries and several major Baltic and Black Sea export terminals such as Ust‑Luga, Primorsk and Novorossiysk [7] [4] [5]. Reuters, BBC and other outlets report fires at major refineries and damage to port infrastructure that directly serve export flows, and Russian industry sources say some facilities were knocked offline or operated at reduced rates [6] [4] [2].
2. Measured effect on refining capacity and product output
Analysts and reporting place the impact on runs in the low‑double digits: by late September strikes had reduced refining production by roughly 10% and, at points, Ukraine’s attacks cut Russia’s downstream capacity by “almost a fifth,” according to industry sources cited by Reuters [1] [4]. United24Media’s early‑2025 estimate claims around 17% of refining capacity and 20% of seaborne exports were affected, but that outlet’s figures and some projections (10–20% revenue hit) are not universally echoed across mainstream reporting [8] [1].
3. How export volumes were affected year‑to‑date
Reporting shows a mixed picture: there is clear evidence that product exports—particularly refined diesel and gasoline—fell materially in 2025 and prompted Russian export controls, with some outlets estimating diesel and gasoline exports down by roughly 30% in recent months, while others say crude exports even surged as refining fell [9] [10]. Reuters and the BBC highlight that refined product shipments were the most impacted, while crude‑by‑sea flows and overall oil export figures exhibit variability depending on terminal availability and Russia’s operational responses [2] [10] [4].
4. Shifts in export destinations and logistics
Sources document damage to key export hubs and note Russia has had to reroute, stagger or temporarily halt shipments. Attacks on Baltic and Black Sea terminals reduced capacity at ports that collectively handle significant seaborne volumes (Primorsk’s capacity is cited as >1 million bpd), creating chokepoints and forcing operational changes [4]. Bloomberg and Reuters reporting also suggest Moscow increased crude exports in some months as domestic refining fell—an adjustment that changes the mix and destinations of what is shipped abroad [10] [4]. Specific destination shifts (which countries received more or less Russian oil) are not detailed comprehensively in the available reporting; available sources do not mention a full country‑by‑country rerouting map.
5. Domestic effects inside Russia: shortages, price spikes, and export controls
Local shortages and long queues at petrol stations in parts of Russia, plus regional price spikes, are widely reported; Moscow responded by imposing partial bans on petrol exports and restricting diesel shipments to stabilize domestic supply [2] [9]. Reuters and the BBC record government measures including temporary export suspensions and warnings from officials that production or exports could be curtailed further if terminals remain disrupted [4] [2].
6. Competing interpretations and uncertainties
Analysts disagree on scale and permanence. Some outlets (United24Media, Kyiv‑leaning sources) estimate up to ~17–20% of refining or seaborne export capacity affected and project $10–20bn annual revenue hits [8]. Reuters, Bloomberg and Foreign Affairs emphasize nuance: while strikes have cut runs and spurred export controls, Russia retains large crude export capacity and has in some periods increased crude shipments even as refined product exports fell, so the overall macro picture is complex and time‑dependent [10] [1] [4]. The precise year‑to‑date net change in total barrels exported (crude plus products) and how much trade was rerouted by destination are not fully quantified in the provided reporting; available sources do not mention a single consolidated year‑to‑date export volume and destination breakdown.
7. Why this matters geopolitically and economically
Strikes target Russia’s main revenue streams, putting pressure on war financing and prompting Western and domestic policy reactions [6] [3]. They also challenge the resilience of Russia’s logistics—damaged terminals and refineries force operational workarounds, export bans and market distortions that affect global refined product availability and regional fuel markets [4] [9]. At the same time, Russia’s capacity to reroute crude and leverage remaining ports tempers claims of a full collapse in exports [10] [1].
Limitations: reporting varies by outlet and timeframe; definitive aggregate year‑to‑date export figures and a full destination breakdown are not available in the provided sources (not found in current reporting).