How did US crude oil production change month-by-month from January 2017 to January 2021?

1. Growth through 2017–2019: the shale-led ascent

U.S. crude oil production climbed steadily after 2009 and continued rising through 2017–2019, driven primarily by tight oil and the Permian Basin; by 2019 the United States hit a then-record annual production (monthly highs that year produced the 2019 12.3 million b/d benchmark) that reflected rising monthly output across these years ^[2][3].

2. What the sources say about monthly data (and the gap)

None of the provided sources publish a complete month-by-month time series from January 2017 through January 2021 in the searchable excerpts; instead they report year averages, notable monthly peaks, and narrative descriptions of the trends. The EIA-based reporting cited here summarizes the trend — growth to a 2019 high, sharp fall in 2020, partial rebound in 2021 — but does not supply the detailed monthly numbers in the available snippets ^[2][1].

3. The 2020 collapse: pandemic demand shock explained

Available reporting says the only interruption to the long post‑2009 rise was 2020 (and 2021) when demand and prices plunged because of the COVID‑19 pandemic; that caused monthly production to fall sharply in 2020 relative to 2019 levels and made 2020 a clear break in the prior month‑by‑month growth pattern ^[2][4].

4. 2020–2021 recovery nuance and averages

Reporting cites EIA figures putting U.S. field production at about 11.3 million b/d in 2020 and roughly 11.2 million b/d in 2021, showing only a modest recovery between those two years and making 2021 production higher than 2017–2018 but well below the 2019 peak ^[1]. These are annual averages; monthly output in late 2020 and January 2021 was recovering from spring 2020 lows but did not reach 2019 monthly highs across the year ^[1][2].

5. How to reconstruct month‑by‑month numbers — and why sources differ

To produce a precise month‑by‑month series you must use primary EIA monthly production tables or the EIA Today in Energy pages; the secondary sources in this set summarize trends and cite EIA without reproducing the full monthly table in the excerpts provided ^[2]. Different outlets emphasize annual averages or record months (for example 2019’s 12.3 million b/d record) so narrative accounts can obscure month‑to‑month volatility unless the EIA monthly dataset itself is consulted ^[2].

6. Competing narratives and potential agendas

Conservative outlets in this sample stress U.S. record production and energy independence as a political achievement, while fact‑checking and mainstream outlets emphasize continued imports and the pandemic’s effect on production levels — both narratives draw on the same EIA data but highlight different elements: milestones vs. nuance about imports and monthly declines ^[5][1][2]. Readers should note that promotional pieces praising record production often omit the 2020 downturn context that fact‑checkers and the EIA explicitly record ^[2][1].

7. What I can and cannot confirm from these sources

I can confirm the high‑level chronology: rising monthly production through 2019, a sharp pandemic‑era fall in 2020, and partial recovery into 2021, with cited annual averages near 11.3 million b/d and 11.2 million b/d and a 2019 monthly/annual high of about 12.3 million b/d ^[1][2]. I cannot provide the specific month‑by‑month numeric series for January 2017–January 2021 from the current set because the provided excerpts do not include the full monthly EIA table (available sources do not mention the full month‑by‑month table in the excerpts) ^[2].

8. Practical next step to get the exact monthly series

If you want precise month‑by‑month production values for January 2017 through January 2021, consult the EIA’s monthly U.S. field production tables or the EIA “Today in Energy” release for those months; the narrative sources here point to the EIA as the primary data provider but do not reproduce the full series in the excerpts ^[2].