How did U.S. crude oil production under Biden compare to Trump's term and how did it affect gasoline prices?
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Executive summary
U.S. crude oil production was higher on average during the Biden presidency than under Trump, and grew to record levels despite Biden’s climate-oriented policies; however, gasoline prices during Biden’s term were generally higher and driven largely by global market forces—demand recovery, OPEC decisions, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—rather than by a simple shortfall of U.S. crude output [1] [2] [3].
1. Production: headline numbers and who “won” the count
Measured by annual and multi‑year averages, U.S. crude production rose under Biden to levels above the Trump years: Forbes reports average production under Biden at about 12.2 million barrels per day compared with roughly 11.0 million under Trump [1], Reuters and Newsweek note that the U.S. reached record weekly and annual production totals during Biden’s term, including weeks above 13 million barrels per day and annual totals on pace to exceed Trump-era records [2] [4]. PolitiFact’s checks underscore that production in Biden’s first year was roughly on par with late‑Trump 2020–2021 figures when controlled for pandemic distortions (11.185 mb/d in 2021 vs. 11.283 mb/d in 2020) [3].
2. The mechanics: rigs, leases and lagged effects
Drilling is a multi‑year business, meaning leases and permitting under one administration often feed production years later; The Conversation argues that much of the production growth seen under Biden was seeded by Trump-era leasing and permitting decisions, while the Biden administration also continued to permit and see production rise even as it pursued emissions rules and reduced leasing rates [5]. Rig counts did decline from Trump-era highs—Forbes notes Biden averaged about 500 rigs versus 666 under Trump and 909 under Obama—which shows fewer active drilling rigs even as output rose, reflecting productivity gains and wells brought online from earlier investment [1].
3. Gasoline prices: the timing and the big drivers
Gasoline prices were materially higher on average during Biden’s years through 2023 than during Trump’s term, with Reuters reporting an average pump price of $3.60 per gallon in Biden’s first three years versus $2.57 during Trump’s presidency [2]. Multiple outlets and fact‑checks point to demand recovery after pandemic lockdowns, inflation, OPEC production decisions (including cuts requested of OPEC in 2020), and the shock of Russia’s 2022 invasion as the principal forces pushing global crude and retail gasoline prices up—factors largely external to U.S. crude volumes [3] [1] [6].
4. Cause and effect: did U.S. production (or policy) “cause” higher gas prices?
Analysts cited by PolitiFact and Forbes caution that administration policy has limited short‑term leverage over global oil prices and that higher pump prices under Biden were not chiefly explained by lower U.S. production [3] [1]. Reuters and PolitiFact add that global supply constraints and geopolitical events kept crude prices elevated even as U.S. output increased, and that U.S. strategic actions—like the large SPR drawdown in 2022—were emergency responses to those global price spikes, not primary causes of sustained price levels [2] [7].
5. Political framing and hidden agendas in the coverage
Political actors have simplified the story: Republicans point to higher pump prices as a failure of Biden policy while Democrats highlight record domestic production under Biden to rebut them; fact‑checking outlets show both claims can be misleading when stripped of context—Trump’s low averages were influenced by pandemic‑era demand collapse and timing, while Biden’s higher averages coincided with global shocks [6] [3]. The Conversation and CSIS note an implicit agenda in both narratives: taking credit or assigning blame for complex, lagged energy market dynamics that administrations can influence only imperfectly [5] [8].
6. Bottom line
The straightforward arithmetic: on average the United States produced more crude under Biden than under Trump and hit record weekly and annual outputs during Biden’s term, yet gasoline prices were generally higher during Biden’s years because of global demand recovery, OPEC actions, and geopolitical shocks that overwhelmed the narrower effect of U.S. production changes; attributing pump prices primarily to Biden-era production policies misreads the timing, global market drivers, and the lag between leasing and actual output [1] [2] [3].