How did U.S. fuel import/export flows and refinery capacity additions or retirements between 2021–2025 moderate domestic gasoline prices?

1. How changing import/export flows altered supply signals

From the pandemic years into 2021–2023 the U.S. moved from an unusual net‑exporter stance in 2020 toward complex trade flows: annual data show the U.S. both exported large volumes of petroleum products and continued to import crude oil for refining—about 6.28–6.48 million barrels per day of crude imports and roughly 10.2 million b/d of total petroleum exports in 2023—so domestic refiners could arbitrage global markets and ship products abroad while sourcing crudes that fit their configurations, increasing effective supply elasticity for gasoline on domestic and international markets ^{[2] [1] [3]}.

2. Why exports didn’t automatically raise U.S. pump prices

A straightforward claim — “more exports = higher domestic prices” — is not supported by the EIA reporting: the U.S. exported more refined products than it imported in recent years while still meeting domestic demand, and that refined‑product trade helped balance regional supply/demand mismatches rather than producing uniform upward pressure on U.S. retail gasoline. In short, product exports reflected both surplus refinery output and global demand; the ability to export gave refiners a revenue outlet that can support throughput and keep domestic wholesale product availability relatively robust ^{[7] [2]}.

3. Refinery capacity trends and their price implications

EIA’s refinery capacity snapshot shows operable atmospheric distillation capacity at about 18.4 million b/cd on Jan. 1, 2025—“essentially flat” year‑over‑year—meaning refinery throughput potential did not sharply contract in early 2025 ^[4]. However, separate EIA outlooks and industry reporting flagged planned and completed closures—LyondellBasell’s Houston shutdown and Phillips 66 Los Angeles plans—which the EIA projected could lower capacity toward roughly 17.9 million b/d by end‑2025. Those closures tighten downstream flexibility and can raise regional crack spreads; yet EIA expected overall crack spreads to be relatively unchanged in 2025 and forecast lower retail gasoline averages partly because crude price declines offset capacity effects ^{[4] [5] [8] [9]}.

4. The role of refinery margins (crack spreads) in moderating pump prices

EIA links retail gasoline movements to two main drivers: crude oil prices and refinery margins (crack spreads). After 2022’s spike, gasoline price declines in 2023–2024 were driven by lower crude prices and narrower margins; for 2025 EIA projected gasoline prices would fall further (about $0.11/gal or ~3% vs. 2024) but noted that falling crude prices would be the primary driver while margins could widen—meaning refinery economics matter, but on net EIA expected lower pump prices in 2025 from crude price moves ^{[6] [5]}.

5. Regional effects, timing and hidden incentives

National capacity totals mask regional bottlenecks: closures (for commercial reasons or conversions to renewable fuel output) remove local throughput and can sharply affect West Coast or Gulf Coast retail prices even if national capacity is “flat” on paper ^{[10] [11]}. Refiners have commercial incentives to export higher‑value products; that behavior can reduce local inventory cushions at times, but EIA reporting indicates refiners’ exports in aggregate reflected surplus product output and global demand rather than an intent to starve domestic markets ^{[7] [2]}. Available sources do not mention specific instances where exporters intentionally reduced domestic gasoline supply to raise U.S. retail prices.

6. What the price data show and remaining caveats

Retail price series and EIA weekly updates confirm gasoline prices fell from their 2022 peak into 2023–2024 and EIA forecast further modest declines in 2025; the EIA explicitly ties this to lower crude prices and evolving refinery margins rather than to a single trade or capacity variable alone ^{[6] [12]}. Limitations: source material here is aggregate and EIA points to interplay among crude markets, refinery utilization, regional closures and exports—so causation is multi‑factorial. For granular attribution (by week, region, or refinery) the available sources point readers to the EIA weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update and EIA refinery capacity tables for detailed drilldowns ^{[13] [14]}.

Bottom line: between 2021–2025 higher refined‑product exports coexisted with meaningful crude imports and largely stable national refining capacity as of Jan. 1, 2025; EIA assesses that falling crude prices, not an expansion of refining capacity, were the dominant moderator of lower retail gasoline prices into 2025, while refinery margins and localized capacity retirements remain important upside risks ^{[2] [1] [4] [6]}.