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Fact check: Which US states rely most heavily on Canadian electricity imports?
Executive Summary
Three distinct sets of reporting converge on the conclusion that northeastern and midwestern U.S. states — notably Minnesota, Michigan, New York, Maine and Vermont — are the most reliant on Canadian electricity imports, with Ontario and Quebec supplying the bulk of cross‑border power. Reporters also identify broader regions (New England, Pacific Northwest, California) as meaningful recipients, and put a spotlight on recent figures — Canada exported roughly 35 terawatt‑hours to the U.S. in 2024 and electricity trade was valued at about $4.3 billion in 2023 — framing electricity as both an economic and geopolitical lever [1] [2] [3] [4].
1. Why the Power Map Points North: Which States Are Named Most Often?
Across the provided analyses, Minnesota, Michigan and New York appear repeatedly as high‑dependence states, with Maine and Vermont also identified in several accounts; other reporting expands the set to include New England generally and parts of the Pacific Northwest and California. The strongest specificatons come from an April 2025 piece that lists New York, Michigan, Minnesota, Vermont and Maine as states that “rely heavily” on Canadian imports, while March 2025 reporting singles out Maine and Minnesota as particularly dependent and highlights that Ontario and Quebec are the primary exporters to the U.S. [3] [4] [2]. These repeated mentions indicate a core geography — northeast and upper Midwest — where Canadian hydroelectric surplus routinely flows across interconnections and regional markets.
2. Numbers Behind the Narrative: Volumes, Values and Households at Stake
The data cited in the set paint a consistent quantitative picture: Canada exported approximately 35 terawatt‑hours of electricity to the U.S. in 2024, and bilateral electricity trade was valued at about $4.3 billion in 2023. One analysis frames that amount as powering “over 6 million U.S. homes,” and another report quantifies possible exposure by saying 1.5 million homes could be affected by a proposed 25 percent export tariff — figures that underscore the material scale of the imports [4] [5] [1]. Ontario and Quebec emerge as the dominant Canadian suppliers, which aligns with cross‑border transmission capacity and proximity to the Northeast and Midwest demand centers [2] [1].
3. Divergent Reporting and Gaps: What the Sources Don’t Agree On
The coverage diverges on specificity and emphasis. Some articles list named states and rank dependence, while other pieces provide only regional overviews or note that Ontario supplies three U.S. states without enumerating them, leaving questions about relative shares unresolved [6] [7]. A March 2025 analysis flags Maine and Minnesota as “most dependent,” while April 2025 reporting includes New York and Michigan in a short list of heavily reliant states, demonstrating variation in journalistic thresholds for “reliance” and inconsistent access to granular state‑level trade data [4] [3] [6]. These inconsistencies point to data gaps in publicly cited sources and differing editorial choices about what constitutes heavy dependence versus routine cross‑border trade.
4. Policy Pressure: Tariffs, Leverage and Who’s Talking Tough
Multiple pieces highlight policy moves and potential leverage: a proposed 25 percent export tariff on electricity from Canada features in the analyses and is framed as a measure that could materially affect states that import Canadian power; this elevates electricity from a commodity to a geopolitical bargaining chip [1] [6]. Coverage notes Ottawa’s provinces (Ontario and Quebec) as the exporters who could be used in negotiations, implying that states with high import shares could face price shocks or supply shifts. The emphasis on tariffs and trade posture suggests that reporting is attentive not just to physical flows but to how trade policy could redistribute costs and risks across regional grids [1] [2].
5. Bottom Line for Readers: What We Know — and What Needs Better Data
Converging evidence identifies the northeast and upper Midwest as the U.S. subregions most exposed to Canadian electricity exports, with Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, New York and Vermont recurring across reports and Ontario and Quebec cited as the principal suppliers. Key metrics — 35 TWh in 2024 and $4.3 billion in 2023 — quantify the trade’s scale and indicate material stakes if export constraints or tariffs are imposed [4] [2] [1]. Significant gaps remain: public reporting varies in naming specific recipient states and in providing state‑by‑state import shares. Closing those gaps requires access to granular, time‑series electricity trade data from transmission operators and national energy agencies to move from consistent narratives to precise dependency rankings [7] [5].