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Fact check: Captain America Brave New World is trending towards a commercial failure. And that is even if you believe the bullshit budget number of $180 million.

Checked on March 14, 2025

1. Summary of the results

The financial performance of Captain America: Brave New World presents a complex picture. The film has earned between $341-370.8 million globally [1] [2], which is significantly below previous Captain America films like Winter Soldier ($714.4 million) and Civil War ($1.15 billion) [1]. While one source projects potential earnings of $650 million [3], multiple sources indicate the film needs to earn between $350-400 million just to break even [4] [2].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several crucial contextual elements are worth noting:

  • The film represents a franchise reboot with Anthony Mackie and Harrison Ford as Red Hulk, which could affect audience expectations [3]
  • The MCU franchise historically averages $746 million per film [3]
  • The film has received poor critical reception with:
  • A Metacritic score of 42 (lowest in MCU) [5]
  • 49% on Rotten Tomatoes [6]
  • Additional revenue streams like licensing, digital sales, and merchandise could still contribute to overall profitability [1]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The statement's skepticism about the $180 million budget appears warranted, as multiple sources suggest the actual budget is significantly higher:

  • Total costs could reach around $380 million when including marketing [7] [7]
  • The film faces serious production problems [5]

However, the term "commercial failure" might be premature:

  • Some sources suggest it could still perform "comfortably" within current MCU standards [3]
  • The film's financial performance should be viewed in the context of changing audience expectations and the challenges of introducing a new Captain America [4]

Those benefiting from different narratives include:

  • Disney/Marvel (downplaying budget numbers to manage investor expectations)
  • Critics and media outlets (generating engagement through negative coverage)
  • Competing studios (highlighting Marvel's potential decline)
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