Fact check: Captain America Brave New World is trending towards a commercial failure. And that is even if you believe the bullshit budget number of $180 million. And since sources are getting all squirely with the definition of commercial failure, lets get specific. The Studio's portion of the World Wide gross will not be sufficient to cover the cost of producing and marketing the film.

1. Summary of the results

The commercial performance of "Captain America: Brave New World" presents a complex picture with significant discrepancies in reported figures:

• The film's actual budget is disputed, with official sources claiming $180M ^[1], while other sources report it could be as high as $380M ^[2]
• Opening weekend projections ranged from $86-109M ^{[1] [3]}, but the film experienced:

A 68.3% drop in second-week box office ^[4]

An 82% drop in Friday earnings ^[5]

• Current global earnings stand at $341M ^[6], with projections suggesting it will struggle to reach $400M total ^[4]

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

• Historical Context: The film's performance needs to be viewed through multiple lenses:

While these numbers might be successful for other franchises, they represent an "unfortunate failure" by Marvel's standards ^[4]

It's tracking to be among the lowest-performing MCU films, alongside The Incredible Hulk and The Marvels ^[6]

• Break-even Analysis:

With marketing costs included, the break-even point is estimated at $450M ^[7]

The film is projected to finish domestically between $181-222M ^[5]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

Several key biases and potential misinformation exist:

• Budget Transparency:

Disney benefits from promoting the lower $180M budget figure, as it makes the film appear more profitable ^[2]

Media outlets are criticized for uncritically repeating Disney's budget claims without verification ^[2]

• Definition of "Failure":

The original statement's definition of commercial failure (not covering production and marketing costs) appears accurate based on current projections ^[7]

However, the film has technically recouped its production budget if using the official $180M figure ^[4]

• The situation represents a broader trend of Marvel's recent struggles with audience engagement ^[5]

This analysis suggests that while the original statement's skepticism about the budget figures appears warranted, the ultimate determination of "commercial failure" depends heavily on which budget figure ($180M vs $380M) is accepted as accurate.