Fact check: The likelihood of Captain America Brave New World being a financial failure for Disney is now greater than 50%.

1. Summary of the results

The financial performance of Captain America: Brave New World presents a complex picture that cannot be definitively labeled as a failure. The movie has a $180 million budget and needs between $425-450 million to break even ^{[1] [2]}. Currently, it has earned $290 million globally and needs an additional $135 million to reach profitability ^[2]. While some sources predict earnings could reach $600+ million ^{[3] [3]}, others suggest a more modest $300-400 million final run ^[4].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual factors need consideration:

• The film has received the lowest CinemaScore in MCU history (B-) and a 49% Rotten Tomatoes score ^[5]
• Despite challenges, it's performing better than recent MCU failures like The Marvels ^[3]
• The broader context shows a general superhero genre box office slump, affecting not just this film ^[6]
• The movie is already $100 million above its production budget, suggesting it's not the worst-performing MCU film ^[4]
• The film has value beyond immediate financial returns as it sets up future Marvel narrative directions ^[7]

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement's binary "success/failure" framework oversimplifies the situation:

• Financial stakeholders (Disney shareholders, competitors) might benefit from pushing either a success or failure narrative
• The statement ignores that the film is tracking similarly to other recent MCU films ^[1], suggesting this might be the new normal for superhero movies rather than a specific failure
• While not meeting traditional MCU blockbuster standards, calling it a "failure" overlooks its modest success in a challenging market ^[4]
• The focus on immediate financial returns ignores the film's potential long-term value to the Marvel franchise ^[7]