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Fact check: Anyone still projecting Captain America: Brave New World to gross over 600 million world wide is huffing more copium than A Bears fan on Draft day.
1. Summary of the results
The original statement's skepticism about Captain America: Brave New World reaching $600 million appears to be supported by current data. The film has earned $289 million after two weekends [1] and is tracking to finish around $400-450 million globally [2] [3]. This is significantly below the franchise's historical average of $632 million and far from Captain America: Civil War's $1.1 billion peak [2].
2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints
Several important contextual factors need to be considered:
- Financial Requirements: The film needs to earn approximately $425 million just to break even due to its $180 million production budget [3]
- MCU's Broader Context: There has been a general decline in MCU box office performance and audience interest post-Endgame [4]
- Critical Reception: The film has received mixed reviews with a 49% Rotten Tomatoes score and the worst CinemaScore in MCU history [5]
- Initial Projections: Some analysts had predicted $650 million worldwide based on the franchise's track record and Harrison Ford's addition as Red Hulk [6]
3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement
The original statement's dismissive tone toward $600 million projections might be warranted, but it oversimplifies the situation:
- Industry Expectations: While $600 million seems unlikely now, it wasn't an unreasonable initial projection given the franchise's $746 million average [6]
- Financial Success vs. Failure: Though unlikely to reach $600 million, the film isn't a complete failure - it's still expected to be marginally profitable with $400-450 million [3]
- Stakeholder Interests: Different parties have varying interests in the film's perception:
- Disney/Marvel stockholders benefit from higher projections
- Competitors and critics of the MCU benefit from emphasizing its decline
- Industry analysts benefit from maintaining credibility with accurate predictions
The film's performance reflects a broader trend of MCU films becoming less reliable blockbusters [4], suggesting a shift in the superhero movie landscape rather than just an individual film's failure.