Fact check: Captain America Brave New World is going to commercially fail. And when it does, the access media will immediately start to make excuses for it without addressing the elephant in the room. Falcon as Captain America was un extremely unpopular choice. And Marvel knew this already because they tried it in the comics and it commercially failed for them there as well.

1. Summary of the results

The prediction of commercial failure for "Captain America: Brave New World" is more complex than the original statement suggests. While there are significant challenges, including multiple reshoots and negative test screening feedback ^{[1] [2]}, early box office projections actually estimate an $86-$95 million opening weekend, which is comparable to previous Captain America films ^[3]. However, the high production costs of $350-$375 million create additional pressure for commercial success ^[3].

2. Missing context/alternative viewpoints

Several important contextual elements are missing from the original statement:

• The film's potential success extends beyond theatrical release, with possible streaming value on Disney+ ^[3]
• The choice of Falcon as Captain America was part of a broader strategic diversity initiative by Marvel, with Kevin Feige reportedly willing to stake his position on increased representation ^[4]
• The film has faced significant production challenges, including extensive rewrites and delays due to poor early cuts ^{[1] [2]}

3. Potential misinformation/bias in the original statement

The original statement contains several problematic assertions:

• The claim that Falcon was an "extremely unpopular choice" is not supported by the provided sources. Instead, sources indicate this was a strategic decision aligned with Marvel's broader diversity initiatives ^[4]
• The statement oversimplifies the relationship between comic book success and film success. While the original statement claims comic book failure predicts film failure, none of the provided sources support this correlation
• The statement presents a false dichotomy between commercial success and failure, while industry analysis suggests a more nuanced reality with multiple factors at play ^[3]

Who benefits from these narratives:

• Anti-diversity groups might benefit from pushing the "unpopular choice" narrative
• Competing studios might benefit from negative pre-release perception
• Marvel/Disney benefit from the counter-narrative of strategic diversity choices and streaming potential
• Traditional theatrical distributors benefit from emphasizing box office numbers over streaming success