Keep Factually independent
Whether you agree or disagree with our analysis, these conversations matter for democracy. We don't take money from political groups - even a $5 donation helps us keep it that way.
Fact check: Which late-night TV shows saw the most significant ratings changes from 2024 to 2025?
Executive Summary
The available reporting finds that The Late Show with Stephen Colbert led Q2 2025 in total viewers while Jimmy Kimmel Live! led the 18–49 demo, and The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon experienced the largest year‑over‑year drops versus Q2 2024, according to mid‑2025 Nielsen summaries [1] [2]. Multiple later accounts describe larger structural shifts—declining linear TV late‑night audiences, migration to YouTube and streaming, and program disruptions like Kimmel’s suspension and Colbert’s cancellation—that complicate a straight year‑to‑year ranking [3] [4] [5].
1. The headline winners and losers that emerged from Q2 2025 — who truly moved the needle
The Q2 2025 Nielsen snapshot identifies Colbert as the ratings leader in total viewers with about 2.42 million, while Kimmel narrowly led among adults 18–49 with roughly 220,000 viewers, edging Colbert’s 219,000 [1]. The same reporting flags The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon as the biggest loser year‑over‑year, taking the steepest declines in both total viewers and the 18–49 demo when compared with Q2 2024 [1]. These claims are consistent across related reporting that highlights Colbert’s raw total‑audience strength and the competitive, close margins in the key demo [2].
2. A deeper view: who gained and who surged in specific time slots
Beyond aggregate rank, Greg Gutfeld is singled out for notable year‑over‑year gains, dominating his time slot, which points to slot‑specific dynamics rather than a monolithic late‑night trend [2]. The data show late‑night performance is fragmented by program and time slot, meaning a show can post strong YOY gains even while the category contracts overall. This nuance is present in Q2 reporting: total‑viewer leadership and demographic leadership do not always align, and some hosts are growing audiences within narrower but strategically valuable windows [2].
3. Demographic swings matter: the 18–49 story reshapes the narrative
The 18–49 metric tells a different story than total viewers: Kimmel’s narrow victory in the demo over Colbert underlines advertisers’ preference for age‑targeted strength, even when total audience favors another show [1]. Later analyses emphasize that younger viewers are disproportionately migrating away from linear broadcast, eroding the value of raw linear totals for future advertising revenue [3] [5]. The divergence between total viewers and 18–49 share is central to understanding which shows are truly “winning” in commercial terms [1] [3].
4. Platform migration: YouTube and streaming are reshaping measurement
Analysts argue that traditional Nielsen ratings undercount a large, growing audience for late‑night clips on YouTube and streaming, with hosts like Kimmel and Colbert commanding millions of subscribers and viewership outside linear schedules [3]. This suggests apparent declines in linear ratings can coexist with substantial digital reach, complicating year‑over‑year comparisons that rely solely on broadcast metrics. Coverage warns that assessing late‑night health requires multiplatform measurement—an adjustment many legacy ratings reports have not fully integrated [3].
5. Significant program disruptions that distorted 2024→2025 comparisons
Events in late 2025—ABC’s indefinite pull of Jimmy Kimmel Live! and suspension‑return cycles—are reported to have produced short‑term spikes and steep subsequent drops, including a documented 64% fall in total viewers after an initial post‑suspension spike [4] [6]. Separately, reporting on Colbert’s cancellation frames it as symptomatic of broadcast economics and audience shifts, suggesting longitudinal comparisons across seasons are affected by network decisions and personnel changes as much as audience preference [5].
6. Contradictions and gaps in the record — what the sources omit
The coverage provides solid Q2 2025 snapshots but lacks unified multiplatform metrics, seasonal aggregation, and transparent methodology linking linear Nielsen figures to digital viewership, creating gaps when comparing 2024 to 2025 comprehensively [1] [3]. Some articles focus on network prime‑time performance or non‑late‑night series, offering little direct late‑night context [7] [8] [9]. The absence of consistent cross‑platform apples‑to‑apples numbers limits definitive claims about overall audience movement between 2024 and 2025.
7. What competing narratives reveal about agenda and interpretation
Industry pieces emphasizing linear declines and cancellations frame the story as broadcast decline and economic contraction, likely reflecting concerns of legacy outlets and advertisers [5]. Others stressing YouTube audiences and host subscriber counts present a counter‑narrative that late‑night content remains influential, simply redistributed—this viewpoint potentially advances digital platforms’ value proposition [3]. Both narratives are supported by facts in the record; reconciling them requires careful multiplatform measurement which the available sources acknowledge is currently incomplete [3] [5].
8. Bottom line — measured change but an incomplete picture across platforms
Q2 2025 data show clear year‑over‑year shifts: Colbert led total viewers, Kimmel led the 18–49 demo, and Fallon suffered the largest YOY losses, while certain hosts like Gutfeld registered significant gains in their slots [1] [2]. However, program suspensions, cancellations, and the migration of audiences to YouTube and streaming complicate direct comparisons to 2024, and the existing coverage calls for integrated multiplatform metrics before declaring a definitive winners‑and‑losers list for late night across 2024–2025 [3] [4] [5].