How is the melania movie doing
Executive summary
The Melania documentary opened in late January 2026 with heavy promotion, a record-setting Amazon purchase and sharply divided expectations: analysts project a modest theatrical take in the low millions while critics and opinion writers are split between praise for access and derision as a vanity project [1] [2] [3]. Early reporting shows mixed box-office presales and soft U.K. ticket sales, even as supporters point to inspiring premiere reactions and a built-in political audience [4] [5] [6].
1. How the movie was financed, marketed and released — the big numbers
Amazon MGM paid an unusually large sum to license the project and its related series, with reports of a $40 million offer plus broad promotional spending; some outlets cite a $75 million combined figure for purchase plus promotion while Wikipedia notes Amazon bought the rights and ran at least $3.5 million in national TV ads in December 2025–January 2026 [1] [7]. The film required a theatrical run as part of the deal and opened in late January 2026 in roughly 1,500–2,000 North American theaters and dozens of international territories, with an accompanying multi-episode Prime Video rollout [1] [2].
2. Box-office realities — modest to weak opening expected
Box-office forecasters have been conservative: Boxoffice Pro and other analysts projected a $1 million–$5 million opening weekend range, with some outlets reporting estimates centered around $2m–$5m and others suggesting as low as $1m–$2m; National Research Group at one point floated a higher $5m domestic figure, but multiple outlets still describe a likely weak theatrical start [5] [2] [3]. Early presales were described as “gaining steam” by entertainment sites, but exhibitors in the U.K. reported “soft” ticket sales ahead of the limited U.K. rollout, signaling that real-world turnout may lag the publicity [4] [5].
3. Critical reception and cultural framing — divided responses
Critical reaction is sharply polarized: some mainstream and conservative outlets highlighted audiences leaving the premiere “inspired” and praised the unprecedented access to Melania Trump [6], while major opinion pieces and reviewers cast the film as an empty infomercial or “horror” of pomp and dread, arguing it reveals little and amounts to a curated image exercise [8] [9]. The Guardian and other critics have labeled the film a costly vanity project and questioned both the aesthetic and political motives behind the production and distribution [3] [7].
4. The documentary as political product — control and agendas
Reporting notes that Trump retained editorial control and was “heavily involved” in production, and that the film’s sale and marketing folded into broader political optics — premieres at the renamed Kennedy Center, Truth Social promotion, and visibility among wealthy donors figure into how the project is being received as political theater rather than neutral documentary filmmaking [1] [7]. Critics and columnists argue the financing and distribution choices signal potential quid pro quo or influence-seeking, while supporters frame the production as corrective access to a maligned public figure [3] [6].
5. Early verdict — doing well on exposure, tepid in commercial and critical terms
Measured by reach and profile, Melania is succeeding: unprecedented access, a high-profile premiere circuit and a major platform on Prime ensure wide visibility [1] [6]. Measured by traditional box-office benchmarks and broad critical acclaim, the film appears to be struggling: projections and early exhibitor reports predict modest grosses and several prominent critics have dismissed the film’s substance or labeled it a vanity project [2] [5] [8]. The film’s longer-term success will hinge on streaming viewership on Prime Video and whether the associated docuseries extends its audience beyond the polarized theatrical turnout — current reporting does not yet include streaming numbers [1].