Fact check: What percentage of Canada's electricity is exported to the USA?

1. Where the 9% claim originates and what it actually means

Two of the supplied analyses directly report the 9% figure for 2016, describing it as the share of Canada’s electricity production that flowed to the United States in that year ^{[1] [2]}. Both items treat the number as a historical statistic rather than a current estimate, and they present it as a component of broader trade and energy‑sector discussions. This 9% should be read as a snapshot tied to 2016 production, not necessarily representative of later years or of seasonal/regional patterns; the supplied materials do not present a consistent time series to show trends after 2016 ^{[1] [2]}.

2. What the other supplied sources say — regional details matter

Several documents emphasize regional two‑way trade and localized market dynamics, especially for British Columbia, rather than a single national export percentage ^[3]. Analyses focused on provincial trade highlight that interprovincial and cross‑border exchanges vary with hydrology, demand, and price signals; these sources stop short of giving a national export share and instead underline that electricity trade is frequently bilateral and seasonal, influenced by provincial generation mixes and market arrangements ^[3].

3. Modeling studies highlight potential but not confirmed export shares

Energy‑system modeling and decarbonization pathway studies included in the materials explore how U.S.–Canada electricity trade could evolve under different policies and transmission costs ^[4]. These studies examine scenarios rather than report realized national export percentages, offering insight into how exports might grow or shift under cleaner grids and expanded transmission. The modeling work is useful for projecting possibilities, but it does not replace empirical export statistics; therefore it cannot corroborate a post‑2016 national export share in the supplied corpus ^[4].

4. Sources that omit the percentage — what they focus on instead

Several supplied items either do not state a national export percentage or explicitly focus on trade relations, legislation, or integration issues rather than quantified export shares ^{[1] [5]}. These documents tend to frame cross‑border electricity as a strategic or technical issue—grid integration, climate impacts, and trade policy—so their omission of a numeric national export figure likely reflects their topical goals rather than contradicting the 2016 statistic. The absence of a recent nationwide percentage in these pieces leaves a documentation gap ^{[1] [5]}.

5. Possible agendas and interpretive cautions in the provided material

The Congressional Research Service and energy‑economics studies can frame statistics to support trade or policy narratives; the provided analyses reflect this by placing the 9% figure within broader arguments about trade and resource flows ^{[1] [2]}. Provincial studies emphasize benefits of two‑way trade to local systems ^[3]. Readers should note that a single point estimate can be used selectively—for historical illustration or to motivate policy—so relying on the 2016 percentage as current without additional, updated empirical series would be misleading ^{[1] [2] [3]}.

6. Bottom line and where the supplied evidence leaves us

Based solely on the supplied analyses, the best‑supported, specific number is that 9% of Canada’s electricity production in 2016 was exported to the U.S. ^{[1] [2]}. The remaining documents provide context—regional variability, modeling scenarios, and trade relations—but no source in the provided set supplies a more recent national export percentage or a trendline beyond 2016 ^{[3] [4]}. The available material therefore answers the question for a historical year ^[6] but leaves a clear evidence gap for current or trend information.