China carbon footprint tracking
Executive summary
China’s CO2 and broader GHG emissions have shown a recent pause: multiple analyses report emissions were “flat or falling” for 18 months through Q3 2025, with some estimates finding 2025 emissions essentially unchanged year‑on‑year and even small year‑to‑year declines in early 2025 [1] [2] [3]. Independent trackers still rate China’s overall policy ambition as “highly insufficient,” and some experts warn the country may miss its near‑term carbon intensity targets even if territorial emissions plateau [4] [1] [5].
1. The headline: an 18‑month plateau that could become a peak
Analyses by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) and reporting summarized by Carbon Brief, Reuters, The Guardian and Yale Environment 360 find China’s CO2 emissions were flat year‑on‑year in Q3 2025, extending a flat-or-falling run that began in March 2024 and lasting roughly 18 months [1] [2] [3] [6]. Reporters and analysts say the pattern opens the possibility that China’s territorial emissions could peak as soon as 2025, though that outcome is not universally accepted [1] [2].
2. What’s driving the slowdown: renewables, EVs and sectoral shifts
Reporting credits rapid renewables expansion and electrification for the pause: China installed record amounts of solar and wind in 2025 and saw power‑sector emissions hold steady even as demand rose, while transport emissions fell as electric vehicles displaced gasoline cars [1] [2] [7]. The IEA’s sector breakdown shows the power sector is the single largest source of CO2 from energy and industrial processes, so shifts in electricity supply matter disproportionately [8].
3. Contradictions and remaining weaknesses
Despite the plateau, independent trackers judge China’s policy package as still “Highly insufficient,” warning that carbon‑intensity goals for 2025 and 2030 may be missed without stronger measures [4]. Multiple outlets note China is on track to miss its 2020–25 carbon‑intensity target even as absolute emissions flatten [1] [5]. The Global Carbon Project and others also emphasize that global emissions are still rising, so China’s pause, while important, is not enough on its own [9].
4. Consumption vs territorial emissions: a measurement caveat
Some analyses stress measurement differences: consumption‑based accounting (which attributes emissions embedded in exports to importing countries) can yield different trends than territorial inventories. One tracker cited that China’s 2021 consumption‑based CO2 was about 10% lower than its territorial emissions, highlighting how framing changes the narrative of responsibility and progress [4]. Available sources do not mention a single authoritative reconciliation of all accounting methods for 2024–25 in one place.
5. Expert views: optimism tempered by survey results
Surveys of China specialists show a range of expectations: a plurality of experts now expect a peak before 2030 (many pick 2028), but only a minority think emissions have already peaked in 2025 — indicating cautious optimism rather than consensus [10] [11]. Carbon Brief’s and CREA’s analyses have shifted some expectations, yet authoritative scientific budgets still project global fossil CO2 to reach record highs in 2025 [9].
6. Policy signals from Beijing and the limits of short‑term trends
Beijing has reaffirmed its goals — peak before 2030 and neutrality by 2060 — and released policy measures including energy efficiency retrofits and carbon market activity, with trading covering large emissions volumes by 2025 [12]. Yet analysts warn China has historically leaned on heavy industry and coal when stimulus is needed, so a temporary plateau could reverse if policy priorities change or stimulus favors carbon‑intensive sectors [13] [4].
7. What to watch next: four near‑term tests
Sources point to four indicators that will determine whether the plateau becomes a durable peak: year‑end Q4 emissions trends, the phasing down of coal after 2026, the pace of renewable additions and grid integration, and whether carbon‑intensity reductions accelerate to meet 2025–2030 targets [7] [8] [4]. If Q4 2025 shows a late‑year spike, the 18‑month run may be only a pause; if renewables continue to outpace demand and coal consumption declines decisively after 2026, the peak could be sustained [1] [8].
Limitations: reporting relies on recent independent analyses and news coverage; definitive confirmation of an absolute national peak requires consolidated national inventories and time to observe post‑2025 trends [3] [9]. Sources disagree on timing and policy sufficiency, so the current narrative is one of hopeful signs amid clear policy and measurement uncertainties [4] [10].